Subsriber Development for Internet Service Providers

["Bernhard Kerres"]

Hi,

I am currently working on a problem to modell the subscriber development for
a European ISP (Internet Service Provider) who offers mostly dial-up access
for private and SME customers to the Internet. I would be most grateful for
any modells, suggestion or ideas what should be included in the modell.

Thanks,
Bernhard Kerres
From: "Bernhard Kerres" <Bernhard@kerres.com>

["Bernhard Kerres"]

Jim,

could you explain a bit more about Diffusion type models? - Perhaps suggest
any readings or so. Although working a lot in SD I have not came across them
yet.

Thanks a lot,
Bernhard
From: "Bernhard Kerres" <Bernhard@kerres.com>

[Jim Hines]

Berhnhard,

Diffusion type models would probably be quite relevent.

Jim Hines
MIT
From: Jim Hines <jimhines@interserv.com>

[Moxnes Erling]

Bernhard,

You asked about Diffusion type models. Here is a list of references =
from
my End Note data base, some more relevant than others. Rogers is the
classical reference, some are system dynamics models, most are not.

Erling Moxnes


Bass, F.M. (1969). "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables."
Management Science 15:215-227.
Bennett, Colin J. (1990). "Review Article: What Is Policy Convergence
and What Causes It?" British Journal of Political Science 21:215-233.
Berry, Frances S. (1994). "Innovation in Public Management: The =
Adoption
of Strategic Planning." Public Administration Review 54(4):322-330.
Berry, Frances S., and Berry William D. (1990). "State Lottery =
Adoptions
as Policy Innovations: An Event History Analysis." American Political
Science Review 84(2):395-415.
Cox, R.H. (1993). "Creating welfare states in Czechoslovakia and
Hungary; why policymakers borrow ideas from the West." Environment and
Planning C: Government and Policy 11:349-364.
David, Paul, and Trond E. Olsen (1989). "Innovation Diffusion, Learning
by Doing, and the Optimum Patent Life." 89/53 : LOS-senteret.
Desveaux, James A., Evert A. Lindquist, and Glen Toner (1994).
"Organizing for Policy Innovation in Public Bureaucracy: AIDS, Energy
and Environmental Policy in Canada." Canadian Journal of Political
Science 27(3):493-528.
Deyle, Robert E. (1994). "Conflict, Uncertainty, and the Role of
Planning and Analysis in Public Policy Innovation." Policy Studies
Journal 22(3):457-473.
Elster, Jon (1993). Political Psychology. New York: Cambridge =
University
Press.
Feiock, Richard C., and Jonathan P. West (1993). "Testing Competing
Explanations for Policy Adoption: Municipal Solid Waste Recycling
Programs." Political Research Quarterly 46(2):399-419.
Galaskiewicz, Joseph, and Ronald S. Burt (1991). "Interorganization
Contagion in Corporate Philanthropy." Administrative Science Quarterly
36:88-105.
Grady, Dennis O. (1992). "Promoting Innovations in the Public Sector."
Public Productivity & Management Review 16(2):157-171.
Greve, Arent, and Julia Harkola (1995a). "The Influence of Opinion
Leaders and Cohesion in the Diffusion of Technology." .
Greve, Arent, and Julia Harkola (1995b). "The Role of Communication in
the Diffusion of Technology in a Japanese Construction Firm." .
Gr=FCbler, A., and N. Nakicenovic (1991). "Long Waves, Technology
Diffusion, and Substitution." Review XIV(2 Spring):313-342.
Harkola, Julia (1994). "Diffusion of construction technology: In a
Japanese firm." : Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University.
Harkola, Julia, and Arent Greve (1995a). "Diffusion of technology:
Cohesion or structural equivalence." Academy of Management Best Papers
Proceedings :422-426.
Harkola, Julia, and Arent Greve (1995b). "The Role Opinion leaders in
the Diffusion of a Construction Technology in a Japanese Firm." .
London.
Hays, Scott P. (1996). "Influences on Reinvention During the Diffusion
of Innovations." Political Research Quarterly 49(3):631-650.
Homer, J. (-). "An Extended Diffusion Model with Application to =
Evolving
Medical Technologies." : Univ. of South. Calif.
Homer, J.B. (1987). "A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving
Medical Technologies." Technological Forecasting and Social Change
31:197-218.
Hurter, and Rubenstein (1978). "Market Penetration by New Innovations:
The Technological Literature." Technological Forecasting and Social
Change 11:197-221.
Jensen, R.A. (1982). "On the Adoption and Diffusion of Innovations =
under
Uncertainty." Journal of Economic Theory forthcoming!!!
Kalish, and Lilien (1986). "Application of Innovation Diffusion Models
in Marketing." in Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product =
Acceptance,
edited by Mahajan and Wind. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger.
Kalish, and Sen (1985). "Diffusion Models and the Marketing Mix for
Single Products." in Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product
Acceptance, edited by Mahajan and Wind. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger.
Karvonen, Lauri (1981). "Med v=E5rt v=E4stra grannland som f=F6rebild. =
En
unders=F6kning av policy diffusion fr=E5n Svergie till Finland." . =
=C5bo: =C5bo
Akademi.
Khator, Renu (1993). "Recycling: A Policy Dilemma for American States?"
Policy Studies Journal 21(2):210-226.
Laflin, Molly, Elizabeth W. Edmundson, and Sarah Moore-Hirschl (1995).
"Enhancing Adoption of an Alcohol Abuse Prevention Program: An
Application of Diffusion Theory." The Journal of Primary Prevention
16(1):75-101.
Mahajan, and Peterson (1985a). Models for Innovation Diffusion. Beverly
Hills, California: Sage.
Mahajan, and Wind (1986). "Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product
Acceptance, A reexamination." in Innovation Diffusion Models of New
Product Acceptance, edited by Mahajan and Wind. Cambridge, Mass.:
Ballinger.
Mahajan, Vijay, and Robert A. Peterson (1985b). Models for Innovation
Diffusion. Berverly Hills/London/New Delhi: Sage Publications.
Mooney, Christopher Z. (1993). "Strategic Informaiton Search in State
Legislative Decision Making." Social Science Quarterly 74(1):185-198.
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, and Arnulf Gr=FCbler (1991). Diffusion of
Technologies and Social Behaviour. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Ray, George (-). "The Diffusion of Mature Technologies." National
Institute Economic Review :56-62.
Rogers, and Shoemaker (1971). Communication of Innovations: A
Cross-Cultural Approach. New York: The Free Press.
Rogers, Everett M. (1995). Diffusion of innovations. New York: The Free
Press.
Saltiel, John, James W. Bauder, and Sandy Palakovich (1994). "Adoption
of Sustainable Agrcultural Practices: Diffusion, Farm Structure, and
Profitability." Rural Sociology 59(2):333-349.
Silverberg, Gerald (1991). "Adoption and Diffusion of Technology as a
Collective Evolutionary Process." Technological Forecasting and Social
Change 39:67-80.
Silverberg, Gerald, Giovanni Dosi, and Luigi Orsenigo (1988).
"Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-Organisation Model." The
Economic Journal 98(December 1988):1032-1054.
Silverberg, G., D. Giovanni, and L. Orsenigo (1988). "Innovation,
Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-Organisation Model." The Economic
Journal 98(December):1032-1054.
Singley, Mark K., and John R. Anderson (1989). The Transfer of =
Cognitive
Skill. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.
Strang, David, and John W. Meyer (1993). "Institutional conditions for
diffusion." Theory and Society 22:487-511.
Tyler, Tom, and Reid Hastie (1991). "The social consequences of
cognitive illusions." Pp. 69-98 in Research on Negotiation in
Organizations. Handbook of Negotiation Research., edited by Max H.
Bazerman, Roy J. Lewicki, and Blair H. Sheppard. London: JAI Press Inc.
Valente, Thomas W. (1993). "Diffusion of Innovations and Policy
Decision-Making." Journal of Communication 43(1):30-45.
Valente, Thomas W. (1995). Network models of the diffusion of
innovations. Cresskill, New Jersey: Hampton Press, Inc.
Venkatraman, N., Lawrence Loh, and Jeongsuk Koh (1994). "The Adoption =
of
Corporate Governance Mechanisms: A Test of Competing Diffusion Models."
Management Science 40(4):496-507.
Wald, Julia, and Arent Greve (1994). "The effects of social networks on
the diffusion of a construction technology in a Japanese firm." .
Wolman, Harold (1992). "Understanding Cross National Policy Transfers:
The Case of Britain and the US." Governance: An International Journal =
of
Policy and Administration 5(1):27-45.
Zahn, Erich "Diffusionstheorie und Innovationsmanagement." Technologie-
und Innovationsmanagement. Abhandlungen aus dem Industrieseminar der
Universit=E4t Mannheim 33:49-71.

____________________________________________________
Erling Moxnes
SNF, Breiviken 2, N-5035 Bergen-Sandviken, Norway
Tel: +47 55 959526 Fax: +47 55 959439
From: Moxnes Erling <Erling.Moxnes@snf.no>