Bruce wrote:
>
> Next why do you feel like that it would be an inappropriate time for SD
> work on terorism to be published? You are correct, everyone can read, but
> do feel that the work currently being published (and read) on terrorism is
> the most appropriate? Wouldnt now be an ideal time to offer some new and
> different insights?
It all depends on how, and to whom, they are offered. All civilised people
were appalled and grieved at the loss of about 3000 lives in New York last
September. It might have been many more had it not been for the gallantry
and skill of the NYPD and NYFD. That is, of course, not the only case by any
manner of means. Maybe you dont realise that more than 3500 people have
been killed in Northern Ireland (with some dead in England) by
paramilitaries since 1979. So, by all means, generate new insights but do
it on behalf of those who have the responsibility for dealing with these
horrors and dont make it public.
> To me SD is a far more understandable approach than many other analytical
> methodologies.
With all respect, understandabilituy is irrelevant. What matters is
applicability to the problem in hand.
>
> What is your opinion of using SD Geoff? I have always appreciated your
> thoughtful questions on the listserve, but I am also interested in hearing
> some of the motivation behind the questions.
Thanks for the compliment! Of, course, I know from experience that SD is
very powerful for dealing with issues exhibiting dynamic behaviour and where
there are policies to be designed which might, in some way, improve
behaviour. In that sense I am certain it might add value to the study of
some aspects of terrorism. The difficulties are first that there are about
four different sorts of terrorism and, secondly, that terrorism involves two
(or more) sides engaged in violent conflict. That makes is exceedingly
hard, in my view (Ill get torn to shreds for this) to build a quantified
simulation model. The best that can be done is probably a qualitative model
(or influence diagram - NOT the same thing as a CLD).
I did mention other techniques for understanding terrorism at a broad level
and impact wheels and the military appreciation come to mind.
On the other hand, as an ex-soldier, I would not dream of using SD to plan
military operations against terrorists though they are part of problem.
I hope that all this helps.
Geoff
From: "geoff coyle" <
geoff.coyle@btinternet.com>