At the London School of Economics we have just completed a piece of work
with a major London Teaching hospital which we will go public on in
January via the LSE Magazine. Additionally, I hope to present a paper at
the 1998 SD conference in Quebec. The details of that paper are shown
here:
> Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements:
> A system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department
>
> DC Lane, C Monefeldt and JV Rosenhead
>
> The London School of Economics and Political Science
>
> Accident and Emergency units provide a route for patients seeking
> urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting
> times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim was to explore
> the factors which contribute to such delays. In collaboration with a
> major London teaching hospital, a system dynamics model of the
> interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital
> processes and bed numbers was developed. The paper discusses the
> formulation of this model; the calibration of a Base Case simulation;
> and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a
> number of the key parameters. Two significant findings appear to have
> policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are
> unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of
> resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that
> while reductions in bed numbers increase waiting times for emergency
> admissions, their principal effect is to increase sharply the number
> of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests
> that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will succeed in
> transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient
> group.
>
> Keywords: Simulation, hospitals, planning, health service, validation,
> systems
>
>
>
> David Lane
From: "Lane,DC" <
D.C.Lane@lse.ac.uk>