Validity of Models
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 1998 2:23 pm
John Gunkler raises some interesting questions. Reading "Industrial=20
Dynamics" a few years ago changed how I think about models, but=20
unfortunately it didnt change the views of the kinds of clients I=20
work for! Forrester and others have described vividly what they mean=20
by validity, but these days it isnt enough to talk about comparing=20
the SD model with mental models - at least not in my field=20
(transport). There is a whole range of alternative metodologies=20
available, many of them very sophisticated, not all of them as useful=20
as claimed.
=20
I do think that one of the problems with SD is that it can appear=20
tendentious. You see it sometimes on this mailing list, when people=20
say they want to build a model to prove that x, y and z. Throw in=20
enough variables and you almost certainly will. The idea of modelling=
=20
parsimony always seems to be very useful, to me, but I dont think=20
its stressed enough in SD thinking.
=20
John Swanson
From: j.swanson@sdg.co.uk
Dynamics" a few years ago changed how I think about models, but=20
unfortunately it didnt change the views of the kinds of clients I=20
work for! Forrester and others have described vividly what they mean=20
by validity, but these days it isnt enough to talk about comparing=20
the SD model with mental models - at least not in my field=20
(transport). There is a whole range of alternative metodologies=20
available, many of them very sophisticated, not all of them as useful=20
as claimed.
=20
I do think that one of the problems with SD is that it can appear=20
tendentious. You see it sometimes on this mailing list, when people=20
say they want to build a model to prove that x, y and z. Throw in=20
enough variables and you almost certainly will. The idea of modelling=
=20
parsimony always seems to be very useful, to me, but I dont think=20
its stressed enough in SD thinking.
=20
John Swanson
From: j.swanson@sdg.co.uk