Peace, agression and conflict resolution models

[Steven Roderick]

Good afternoon all,

My name is Steven Roderick. I'm a high school biology teacher who uses SD
in my classroom and also a human being who is currently quite concerned
about the state of our world, and the lack of systems understanding that our
fellow citizens and governments are currently displaying.

I would like to begin collecting models that show something about aggression
and peace within systems of human beings. If anyone can point me toward
models of this type or send along models that you would like to share, my
plan is to place them upon a site for others to see and play with.

I will accept anything that seems relevant to you and in any format.
Vensim, Stella, and Ithink are preferred, but I believe I can make Powersim
and others work.

Please send these directly to <sroderic@mac.com> : Do not reply to this message
as anything sent to the listserve with an attachment will be lost!!!!!!

Thanks so much. Perhaps this can grow into something important.

In peace,
Steve Roderick
From: Steven Roderick <sroderic@mac.com>

[Kim Warren]

I did a short [and highly preliminary] piece of desk analysis with
colleagues on the outbreak of peace in Sierra Leone. Although not taken
further, we checked the principles with people who had experience on the
ground.
Will send you the paper off-line, but please recognise its tentative
status. The essential elements are ...
- that casualties are a direct function of the current stock of
combatants
- this stock of combatants operates in a manner uncannily similar to a
'professional service' firm [e.g. consultants, lawyers] - i.e. young
recruits are captured, trained and developed through tiers of seniority,
the most senior group direct operations leaving the real work to
middle-ranks leading groups of juniors, unless there are continued
growth opportunities the structure is vulnerable to schism with
frustrated mid-rank people striking out on their own
- combatants' actions aim to create new potential resources in the form
of displaced people [especially children] who can then be absorbed
Whereas we seek to build the hiring and development of staff within
positive professional organisations, peace-keepers' aims are to both
undermine the inflow and accelerate the outfllow from combatant forces.
The dilemma, of course, being how much effort to put into these two
objectives vs. acting against current rates of violence. For outside
agencies seeking to help, the challenge is doubled - not only do they
face this dilemma themselves, but they have a further alternative to
build the professional structure of the country's own security forces.

Kim Warren
From: ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>

[peter warrian]

An additional factor on peace and conflict resolution.

Our Foundation is supporting a network of eight trauma centres working
in conflict zones ( N. Ireland, Israel, Palestine, South Africa, Sri
Lanka ). In addition to dealing with Post Traumatic Stress Disorders
(PTSD) and other trauma-related issues, the centres are increasingly
turning to positive psychology i.e. identifying and increasing the
sources of community resilience.

Reducing levels of trauma is essential for parties to be able to make
peace. And, increasing community resilience contributes both to survival
and capacity-building for reconstruction.


Peter Warrian
From: ""Peter Warrian"" <peterwarrian@sympatico.ca>
Managing Director
Lupina Foundation

[Kesten Green]

How best to predict the decisions people will make in conflicts?

Scott Armstrong and I have found that two methods can provide accurate
forecasts of decisions in conflicts: structured analogies, and simulated
interaction. This is good news, because the usual method for making such
predictions, unaided expert judgement, is no better than chance.

You can find out more about structured analogies and simulated interaction
at www.conflictforecasting.com.

If you are aware of any evidence on the relative accuracy of forecasts from
system dynamics models, please let me know about it and I will include it on
the conflictforecasting.com pages.

Kesten Green
From: Kesten Green <kesten@paradise.net.nz>

[geoff coyle]

Dear All,

This is an interesting theme that deserves exploration. As well as Kim's
simulation, there is also some qualitative SD work in the area: 'Qualitative
and quantitative modelling in system dynamics: some research questions',
System Dynamics Review, Vol.16, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp 225-244. That cites 'A
system description of counter-insurgency warfare', Policy Sciences, 18,
55-78, 1985 which, in turn, has an extensive bibliography on the domain. I'm
sorry, but the latter is not available electronically.

Geoff Coyle
From: ""geoff coyle"" <geoff.coyle@btinternet.com>

[Kim Warren]

Just a small clarification - the work on Sierra Leone did not include a
formulated model, but was limited to a paper-and-pencil architecture of
the main factors in the situation, incorporating rough estimates from
various sources of time-paths for key items.

Kim
From: ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>