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I did a short [and highly preliminary] piece of desk analysis with
colleagues on the outbreak of peace in Sierra Leone. Although not taken
further, we checked the principles with people who had experience on the
ground.
Will send you the paper off-line, but please recognise its tentative
status. The essential elements are ...
- that casualties are a direct function of the current stock of
combatants
- this stock of combatants operates in a manner uncannily similar to a
'professional service' firm [e.g. consultants, lawyers] - i.e. young
recruits are captured, trained and developed through tiers of seniority,
the most senior group direct operations leaving the real work to
middle-ranks leading groups of juniors, unless there are continued
growth opportunities the structure is vulnerable to schism with
frustrated mid-rank people striking out on their own
- combatants' actions aim to create new potential resources in the form
of displaced people [especially children] who can then be absorbed
Whereas we seek to build the hiring and development of staff within
positive professional organisations, peace-keepers' aims are to both
undermine the inflow and accelerate the outfllow from combatant forces.
The dilemma, of course, being how much effort to put into these two
objectives vs. acting against current rates of violence. For outside
agencies seeking to help, the challenge is doubled - not only do they
face this dilemma themselves, but they have a further alternative to
build the professional structure of the country's own security forces.

Kim Warren
From: ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>