Posted by fadl aqww <fadlmaster1@yahoo.com>
I am interested in diabetes modeling .I want to know what
was introduced in this issue by SD? (i.e. for improve therapy,
health care, predication and progression of diabetes cost
effectiveness ,risk management )
If there is no thing introduced in this field by SD ,I want to
know WHY ?
ENG fadl
Posted by fadl aqww <fadlmaster1@yahoo.com>
Diabetes modeling
-
""Alan Graham""
- Junior Member
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
Diabetes modeling
Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
Re SD and diabetes modeling:
In the 1970s, Richard O. Foster's MIT EE MS thesis (probably available
online from MIT) formulated a dynamic model of glucose regulation and
the onset of diabetes. The analyses proposed a causal theory of the onset
(or more precisely, showed that some prevailed theories at the time were
inconsistent with the observed behavior in the model and real life). The
analysis also proposed a novel treatment regimen (less dependence on
insulin therapy and more dependence on other internal mechanisms to
regulate glucose, I believe). Since then, I'm told that this treatment
regimen has become tested and routinely used for the appropriate patients.
Since then, dynamic modeling of glucose regulation for a variety of purposes
has become widespread, usually using the notation of differential equations,
more familiar for a very large body of researchers. See, e.g. the online
version at the Illinois Institute of Technology.
The ""why not"" question suggests a wider set of questions about where SD is
appropriately applied. I would suggest that the center of gravity of SD
applications is probably feedback systems where human decision-making is
an integral part of the dynamics. (That's one of the three pillars of SD
that Forrester identified in Industrial Dynamics.) SD has always been
very strong and unique in corporate strategy, market evoluation, and
economic dynamics. That said, there are fields in which more standard
differential equation modeling is underdeveloped, at least relative to
the complexity of the systems being studied. That was true of glucose
endocrinology 30 years ago, and perhaps global climate change as well.
It still may be true of many ecological and natural resource questions,
and fine SD work continues to be done in those areas. But current glucose
modeling and climate change are being modeled with tools (and the training
and social infrastructure) appropriate to those fields. The pessimistic
view of this is that SD no longer has a unique value add. The optimistic
view is that SD techniques have been adapted (perhaps not consciously or
even directly) into a set of practices appropriate to an individual field.
Perhaps this addresses fadl aqww's question of ""why not"".
cheers,
alan
PS, can I enter a plea for more complete information on who's asking?
Here in the US, I can't even tell whether this is a person's name or not,
let alone student, faculty, or real world, and what the interlocutor has
already found out about the subject. Being a(n online) community does
require that we know a little about each other! akg
Alan K. Graham, Ph.D.
Decision Science Practice
PA Consulting Group
Alan.Graham@PAConsulting.com
One Memorial Drive, Cambridge, Mass. 02142 USA
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From: ""Tignor, Warren W."" <WARREN.W.TIGNOR@saic.com>
To: ""'sdmail@listserv.albany.edu'"" <sdmail@listserv.albany.edu>
Cc: ""'wtignor@ieee.org'"" <wtignor@ieee.org>
Subject: QUERY ISDC Paper Review Process
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2005 12:40:37 -0500
MIME-Version: 1.0
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I'm curious about the membership's general experience with the International
System Dynamics Conference (ISDC) call for papers feedback.
Please think about this crucial part of our ISDC experience and comment on
the following:
1. Was ISDC feedback professional, fair and helpful?
2. If you were an ISDC reviewer, was the experience rewarding?
3. If you have feedback experience from other venues, how does it compare
to ISDC's?
My general comments are that the feedback is helpful and fair. I have found
reviewing papers to be rewarding. For me the ISDC feedback is far superior
to other venue feedback.
I think that ISDC's review process is a silent partner that makes our
conferences so successful. However, there is always room for improvement.
What do you think?
Cheers!
Warren Tignor
wtignor@ieee.org
Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
Re SD and diabetes modeling:
In the 1970s, Richard O. Foster's MIT EE MS thesis (probably available
online from MIT) formulated a dynamic model of glucose regulation and
the onset of diabetes. The analyses proposed a causal theory of the onset
(or more precisely, showed that some prevailed theories at the time were
inconsistent with the observed behavior in the model and real life). The
analysis also proposed a novel treatment regimen (less dependence on
insulin therapy and more dependence on other internal mechanisms to
regulate glucose, I believe). Since then, I'm told that this treatment
regimen has become tested and routinely used for the appropriate patients.
Since then, dynamic modeling of glucose regulation for a variety of purposes
has become widespread, usually using the notation of differential equations,
more familiar for a very large body of researchers. See, e.g. the online
version at the Illinois Institute of Technology.
The ""why not"" question suggests a wider set of questions about where SD is
appropriately applied. I would suggest that the center of gravity of SD
applications is probably feedback systems where human decision-making is
an integral part of the dynamics. (That's one of the three pillars of SD
that Forrester identified in Industrial Dynamics.) SD has always been
very strong and unique in corporate strategy, market evoluation, and
economic dynamics. That said, there are fields in which more standard
differential equation modeling is underdeveloped, at least relative to
the complexity of the systems being studied. That was true of glucose
endocrinology 30 years ago, and perhaps global climate change as well.
It still may be true of many ecological and natural resource questions,
and fine SD work continues to be done in those areas. But current glucose
modeling and climate change are being modeled with tools (and the training
and social infrastructure) appropriate to those fields. The pessimistic
view of this is that SD no longer has a unique value add. The optimistic
view is that SD techniques have been adapted (perhaps not consciously or
even directly) into a set of practices appropriate to an individual field.
Perhaps this addresses fadl aqww's question of ""why not"".
cheers,
alan
PS, can I enter a plea for more complete information on who's asking?
Here in the US, I can't even tell whether this is a person's name or not,
let alone student, faculty, or real world, and what the interlocutor has
already found out about the subject. Being a(n online) community does
require that we know a little about each other! akg
Alan K. Graham, Ph.D.
Decision Science Practice
PA Consulting Group
Alan.Graham@PAConsulting.com
One Memorial Drive, Cambridge, Mass. 02142 USA
----------------- Original message (ID=6358EC64) (45 lines) -------------------
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; Tue, 04 Jan 2005 12:43:26 -0500
Received: by mcl-its-exig01.mail.saic.com with Internet Mail Service (5.5.2657.72)
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Message-Id: <CBB657726C4A2B46AD1F1BA4621B88030655E3@0905-b043-exs01.iisbu.saic.com>
From: ""Tignor, Warren W."" <WARREN.W.TIGNOR@saic.com>
To: ""'sdmail@listserv.albany.edu'"" <sdmail@listserv.albany.edu>
Cc: ""'wtignor@ieee.org'"" <wtignor@ieee.org>
Subject: QUERY ISDC Paper Review Process
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2005 12:40:37 -0500
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2657.72)
Content-Type: text/plain
X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.45
I'm curious about the membership's general experience with the International
System Dynamics Conference (ISDC) call for papers feedback.
Please think about this crucial part of our ISDC experience and comment on
the following:
1. Was ISDC feedback professional, fair and helpful?
2. If you were an ISDC reviewer, was the experience rewarding?
3. If you have feedback experience from other venues, how does it compare
to ISDC's?
My general comments are that the feedback is helpful and fair. I have found
reviewing papers to be rewarding. For me the ISDC feedback is far superior
to other venue feedback.
I think that ISDC's review process is a silent partner that makes our
conferences so successful. However, there is always room for improvement.
What do you think?
Cheers!
Warren Tignor
wtignor@ieee.org
Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
-
""Jack Homer""
- Junior Member
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
Diabetes modeling
Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net>
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset=""iso-8859-1""
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Diabetes is indeed an important subject for modeling, and some of us =
have been doing a lot of work on it the last few years. See:
Homer J, Hirsch G, Minniti M, Pierson M. 2004. Models for collaboration: =
How system dynamics helped a community organize cost-effective care for =
chronic illness. System Dynamics Review 20(3):199-222.
Homer J, Jones A, Milstein B, Seville D, Essien J, Murphy D. 2004. The =
CDC's diabetes systems modeling project: Developing a new tool for =
chronic disease prevention and control. 22nd International System =
Dynamics Conference, Oxford, England.
Both papers discuss extensive policy-oriented projects with foundation =
or U.S. government support. The first paper discusses modeling of =
diabetes and heart failure at the county level. The second paper =
discusses modeling of diabetes at the national level. The project with =
the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues and has =
entered a new phase of application supporting decision-making at the =
state level.
Please feel free to contact me if you have questions about the projects =
after reading the papers.
Jack Homer
Voorhees, New Jersey
Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net>
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset=""iso-8859-1""
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Diabetes is indeed an important subject for modeling, and some of us =
have been doing a lot of work on it the last few years. See:
Homer J, Hirsch G, Minniti M, Pierson M. 2004. Models for collaboration: =
How system dynamics helped a community organize cost-effective care for =
chronic illness. System Dynamics Review 20(3):199-222.
Homer J, Jones A, Milstein B, Seville D, Essien J, Murphy D. 2004. The =
CDC's diabetes systems modeling project: Developing a new tool for =
chronic disease prevention and control. 22nd International System =
Dynamics Conference, Oxford, England.
Both papers discuss extensive policy-oriented projects with foundation =
or U.S. government support. The first paper discusses modeling of =
diabetes and heart failure at the county level. The second paper =
discusses modeling of diabetes at the national level. The project with =
the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues and has =
entered a new phase of application supporting decision-making at the =
state level.
Please feel free to contact me if you have questions about the projects =
after reading the papers.
Jack Homer
Voorhees, New Jersey
Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net>
-
""Geoff McDonnell""
- Junior Member
- Posts: 3
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
Diabetes modeling
Posted by ""Geoff McDonnell"" <gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au>
JAck Homer and Gary Hirsch have produced a lot of work in this area, the
most recent publication being
Models for Collaboration: How System Dynamics Helped a Community Organize
Cost-Effective Care for Chronic Illness
Jack Homer, Gary Hirsch, Mary Minniti and Marc Pierson
System Dynamics Review 2004 20(3) 199-222
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi- ... 0/ABSTRACT
There were also two papers at the International SD Conference in Oxford
2004, one on some of the learnings from several projects
Modeling the Dynamics of Health Care Services for Improved Chronic Illness
Management
Gary B. Hirsch Jack Homer
and the other
The CDC's Diabetes Systems Modeling Project: Developing a New Tool for
Chronic Disease Prevention and Control
Jack Homer et al
Both may still be available at
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2004/indexpapers.htm
If not I can provide copies off the list.
You may wish to consider joining the Health Policy SIG email list of the SD
Society --- I can arrange this via its president, Jack Homer
regards
geoff
Dr Geoff McDonnell
Director Adaptive Care Systems
Simulation Research Fellow Centre for Health Informatics UNSW
AUSTRALIA
gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au
Posted by ""Geoff McDonnell"" <gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au>
JAck Homer and Gary Hirsch have produced a lot of work in this area, the
most recent publication being
Models for Collaboration: How System Dynamics Helped a Community Organize
Cost-Effective Care for Chronic Illness
Jack Homer, Gary Hirsch, Mary Minniti and Marc Pierson
System Dynamics Review 2004 20(3) 199-222
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi- ... 0/ABSTRACT
There were also two papers at the International SD Conference in Oxford
2004, one on some of the learnings from several projects
Modeling the Dynamics of Health Care Services for Improved Chronic Illness
Management
Gary B. Hirsch Jack Homer
and the other
The CDC's Diabetes Systems Modeling Project: Developing a New Tool for
Chronic Disease Prevention and Control
Jack Homer et al
Both may still be available at
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2004/indexpapers.htm
If not I can provide copies off the list.
You may wish to consider joining the Health Policy SIG email list of the SD
Society --- I can arrange this via its president, Jack Homer
regards
geoff
Dr Geoff McDonnell
Director Adaptive Care Systems
Simulation Research Fellow Centre for Health Informatics UNSW
AUSTRALIA
gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au
Posted by ""Geoff McDonnell"" <gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au>