Ventana software support forum

Posted by ""Ahmet Ilker Soydan"" <ilkersoydan@hotmail.com>
Dear all,

I am in the process of crystallizing research idea(s) for the next 3 years
in front of me. I would like to study on Chaos Theory on some applications
with SD. My research area is mainly Supply Chain and Logistics.

I was wondering if I would be able to reach the studies done so far on Chaos
Theory with System Dynamics, preferibly on Supply Chain (I have got the
study of Mosekilde et al. already.) so that I can form some ideas or
opinions on the literature. I would greatly appreciate if you could share
some ideas and references with me.

Thanks in advance...

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Ilker SOYDAN
Politecnico di Milano, Dottorato, PhD Student
Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering

Via Della Martinella 1, 20152, Milano, Italia
Posted by ""Ahmet Ilker Soydan"" <ilkersoydan@hotmail.com>
posting date Fri, 18 Mar 2005 14:26:35 +0000

Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
Hello Ahmet,

At risk of seeming to be a blunt stranger knowing nothing about
your situation and interests, let me raise the possibility that
the process of selecting a research area implied (or at least which
I infer) from your letter may be partially backwards. The process
seems to be to start from interest in a theory (Chaotic dynamics)
and an area (supply chain) and inquire whether there may be suitable
research topics.

With this process, there seems to be a distinct danger of winding up
with an answer in search of a problem and not finding much at all--a
body of research that with luck is mathematically elegant, but which
doesn't lead to further research, appointments, collegial interest,
funding or unique teaching topics. In terms of doing good for yourself
or for the world, a distinct danger of not doing much.

How about starting with an area (supply chain), which has any number
of real challenges, and searching for the challenges for which available
theory may provide an answer if applied or extended? Examples, doubtless
only a couple among many: The fallacies and conundrums of forecasting
within a closed-loop system are largely unexplored even though every
company does it. Remember the remark of Cisco's President after the
dot.com crash caused an unprecedented writeoff of inventory? Something
to the effect of ""of course we manage inventory very tightly. But none of
our models forecast a downturn like this"". Why not? On the strategic
front, do companies that outsource their supply chain lose a dimension of
strategic response by atrophying this competency atrophy? (Thinking here
of the Resource-Based View of strategy.) Very many companies are doing
this, and the consequences beyond cost control are hardly explored, only
sometimes worried about.

My experience is that if you start from the academic literature and look
for worthy research areas, it looks like only tiny problems remain unexplored.
If on the other hand you start with real situations and problems, all of a
sudden, the academic literature is revealed to have more gaps than solid
usefulness, and no end of topics awaiting good research. To my knowledge
this has been true in economics, management strategy, endocrinology and
immunology, and urban government. Doubtless other fields as well.

Food for thought. Good luck and best regards,

Alan

PS, Thanks for identifying the literature you've looked at so far. Your
letter thus contributes as well as asks for contribution. akg

PPS Chaos theory appears particularly unpromising for supply chain,
at least regarding applicability to the real world. Businesses whose
supply chain is vulnerable to flipping among endogenous oscillatory modes
aren't likely to last long. akg

Alan K. Graham, Ph.D.
Decision Science Practice
PA Consulting Group
Alan.Graham@PAConsulting.com
One Memorial Drive, Cambridge, Mass. 02142 USA
Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
posting date Sun, 20 Mar 2005 20:03:16 -0500