Game theory and data mining

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Yi Wang wangy15 Cardiff.ac.uk
Junior Member
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Game theory and data mining

Post by Yi Wang wangy15 Cardiff.ac.uk »

Posted by ""Yi Wang"" <wangy15@Cardiff.ac.uk>


Hi folks. Thanks for all replys on causal loops and stock/flow
diagrams. I am much appreciate all the answer i got.

I would like to know whether any of you have been involved
in intergrating system dynamics with game theory or data mining. Or is there
any good paper regardinga sd and game theory or sd and data mining.

Posted by ""Yi Wang"" <wangy15@Cardiff.ac.uk>
posting date Tue, 03 May 2005 16:52:52 +0100
Goncalves Paulo pgoncalves excha
Junior Member
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Game theory and data mining

Post by Goncalves Paulo pgoncalves excha »

Posted by ""Goncalves, Paulo"" <pgoncalves@exchange.sba.miami.edu>

There are a few studies that I know of that integrate system dynamics
and game theory.

John Sterman, Rebecca Henderson and two of their former students have a
very interesting paper integrating SD & GT, looking at the consequences
of an aggressive capacity acquisition strategy as a means to preempt
competition in the presence of learning curves. Their model considers
the impact of a single-shot decision (how much to invest in capacity)
that plays out during the length of the simulation. Since players
cannot revise their strategies, the framework is ""static"" in its core.
The full paper is available at:
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/BLC.html

Scott Rockart replicated the famous Green and Porter result that cartels
often go into reversionary (i.e., competitive) periods, to punish
companies that deviate from the cartel strategy, as a means of
sustaining the cartel over time. Since companies revise their strategies
over time, the framework is ""dynamic"" in nature. I do not know if a
report or manuscript is available for that work.

I will be presenting some of my work with strategic behavior in a
single-supplier multiple-retailer supply chain in the ISDC 2005. The
extended abstract will be available on the proceedings. The games that I
investigate include static & dynamic between supplier/retailers and
retailer/retailer. So far I have found that in the static retailer game,
a prisoner's dilemma arises if the appropriate incentives are not in
place, allowing retailers to reach equilibrium with an aggressive
ordering strategy (i.e., inflating their orders and later canceling
them) even though a conservative ordering strategy (ordering just what
they need) is mutually more profitable. The conservative strategy
dominates the aggressive one when sufficient incentives are in place. I
am still working on the supplier-retailer static game and the dynamic
games.

Paulo Goncalves
paulog@miami.edu
Posted by ""Goncalves, Paulo"" <pgoncalves@exchange.sba.miami.edu>
posting date Thu, 5 May 2005 06:46:08 -0400
Rose David DaRose hrblock.com
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Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Game theory and data mining

Post by Rose David DaRose hrblock.com »

Posted by ""Rose, David"" <DaRose@hrblock.com>
In addition to those studies Paulo mentions, I am currently researching the integration of behavioral game theory and the psychology of strategic decision-making into models of competitive strategy. In essence, behavioral game theory relaxes the rationality assumptions required in traditional game theory and has shown (in lab experiments) that those following the model-based recommendations (BGT uses an algorithm called ""Functional Experience Weighted Attraction"" to predict what others will do and therefore determine the best strategy with which to maximize profits against naive players) realize a higher economic payoff (as much as +40 percent). My hypothesis is that combining BGT with models of decision-making such as prospect theory enables managers to make better strategic decisions, and more importantly design efficacious controls to continuously optimize against specified goals over time, even as players change their strategies. I'm blending optimal control theory to accomplish this latter point based on work done by David Peterson and others.



If interested, I can send a short description of the research, as well as presentation on the subject.



David Rose

PhD Candidate, Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Posted by ""Rose, David"" <DaRose@hrblock.com>
posting date Thu, 5 May 2005 08:52:33 -0500
Alan Graham Alan.Graham paconsul
Junior Member
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Game theory and data mining

Post by Alan Graham Alan.Graham paconsul »

Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
One successful use of SD within a game-theoretic framework: The case of
Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong versus its regulator, OFTA.

>From the SD viewpoint, the question was whether another competitor would
stimulate investment and enhance wireless data services, and the well-
being of consumers in general. We answered the question by building a
simulator of all the 2G and 3G competitors, actual and potential.
The simulator included fairly SD formulations for decision-making on
price and product investment. We then, in round-robin fashion, optimized
each competitor's pricing and investment strategies competing against the
others, continuing until a competitive ""equilibrium"" was reached. (Of
course, the equilibrium is in strategy parameter space--it's a highly
dynamic and evolving market.) B.t.w., the regulator substantially went
along with the modeling conclusions.

Game theory afficianados might take issue with the approach at several
points, but it's a clear relative of classic dynamic game theory, and
it's a solid and practical application.

The publically-available report is on OFTA's website, which can be
accessed as follows:

http://www.ofta.gov.hk/ > ""English"" > ""Industry focus"" > ""Mobile Network /
Services"" > ""Consultation Papers & Submissions"" > ""Consultation papers"" >
""2 July 2004"" > ""Submissions on Consultation Paper for 'Licensing of Mobile
Services on Expiry of Existing Licenses for Second Generation Mobile Services' -
Analysis of Comments Received, Preliminary Conclusions and Further Consultation""
> #60 ""Hutchison Telephone Company Limited & Hutchison 3G (HK) Limited"" >
#60c ""PA Consulting Group""

cheers,

Alan

Alan K. Graham, Ph.D.
Decision Science Practice
PA Consulting Group
Alan.Graham@PAConsulting.com
One Memorial Drive, Cambridge, Mass. 02142 USA
Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
posting date Thu, 5 May 2005 19:37:13 -0400
Tony Gill Tony.Gill phrontis.com
Member
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Game theory and data mining

Post by Tony Gill Tony.Gill phrontis.com »

Posted by ""Tony Gill"" <Tony.Gill@phrontis.com>
This calendar is a listing of system dynamics (SD) related Conferences,
Chapter Meetings and stand alone short courses open to the general public
without any restrictions. It is not intended as a listing of Universities or
Colleges offering SD as part of degree or diploma programs. It should be of
interest to anyone keen to know more or keep informed about SD - both
new-comers and experts.

If you are offering courses that teach system dynamics & simulation, or
courses that are built around a system dynamics simulation model or
microworld, please email Tony Gill the information <Tony.Gill@phrontis.com>
so he can include it in the monthly posting. Please use the same format as
below for your posting so that I can quickly copy and paste. You should also
update your course listings periodically. Please do not ask or expect me to
check your web sites to get current details - I do not have the luxury of
time for this. I aim to update and publish the list by or about the first
Friday/Saturday of each Month. If you have details to post I need to have
them by the previous Friday just in case I post early due to other
commitments.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

date Title Offered By Location
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONFERENCES, Seminars & Chapter Meetings - 2005

July 1-5 49th Annual Meeting of The International Society for the Systems
Sciences, Cancun, Mexico

July 17-21 SYSTEM DYNAMICS SOCIETY 2005 Conference, Boston, USA

--------------------------------

COURSES/WORKSHOPS - Open to the General Public - 2005


AFRICA & the MIDDLE EAST


The AMERICAS

May 19th, Introduction to System Dynamics with Vensim, Vensim, Cambridge MA

May 20th, Advanced Topics in Vensim, Vensim, Cambridge MA

ASIA & PACIFIC Area

June 14, Strategy Dynamics Introductory Workshop, Strategy Dynamics
Solutions, Hong Kong, China

June 16-17, Strategy Dynamics Principles: Level 1 Accreditation, Strategy
Dynamics Solutions, Hong Kong, China

EUROPE & RUSSIA

May 12-13, Einführung in die Strategy Dynamics Methode, Savannah
Simulations, Zurich, Switzerland

June 15-17, Business Modeling using Systems Dynamics and ithink, Minase BV,
Tilburg, The Netherlands

June 23-24, Einführung in die Strategy Dynamics Methode, Savannah
Simulations, Zurich, Switzerland

July 4-6, Systems Thinking and Dynamics Business Modelling, Phrontis, near
Oxford, UK

July 14-15, Einführung in die Strategy Dynamics Methode, Savannah
Simulations, Zurich, Switzerland

Sept 12, Strategy Dynamics Introductory Workshop, Strategy Dynamics
Solutions, London, UK

Sept 14-15, Strategy Dynamics Principles: Level 1 Accreditation, Strategy
Dynamics Solutions, London, UK

Oct 3-5, Systems Thinking and Dynamics Business Modelling, Phrontis, near
Oxford, UK

-----
INTERNET/DISTANCE LEARNING COURSES

Web based Courses

WPI distance courses - Beginner to Advanced
http://www.wpi.edu/Academics/Corporate/ ... html#apply

More detailed information on Conferences / Training / Course content is
available at the web site URLs given above. Contact Information:

WPI Distance Course
contact Jim Hines email: jhines@mit.edu

-----
CONTACTS

System Dynamics Society & Chapters

SYSTEM DYNAMICS SOCIETY
Milne 300, Rockefeller College, 135 Western Avenue State University of New
York at Albany, Albany, NY, 12222, U.S.A.
phone (518) 442-3865, fax (518) 442-3398
e-mail: system.dynamics@albany.edu
http://www.systemdynamics.org/

Latinamerican Chapter
Dr. Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales
Universidad de Talca
http://dig.utalca.cl/carpeta/Martin_Sch ... aSistemas/
index.htm


UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society, http://www.uksds.org/ Secretary:
Dr Susan Howick, Dept of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, 40
George Street, Glasgow G1 1QE, UK.
Phone: +44 141 548 3798 Fax: +44 141 552 6686
E-mail: Susan@mansci.strath.ac.uk

---------------
More detailed information on Conferences / Training / Course content is
available at the web site URLs given below. Contact Information:

blo - beratung learning organisation
Wolfgang Kraschinski, Diplom-Soziologe
Hennebacher Strasse 72, D-08648 Bad Brambach, Germany
+49.37438.21418 fon +49.721.151470366 fax
info@blo.de www.blo.de

International Society for the Systems Sciences Jennifer Wilby VP
Administration ISSS
j.wilby@hull.ac.uk
http://www.isss.org/conferences/cancun2 ... apers.html

isee systems, inc - ithink
46 Centerra Parkway, Suite 200, Lebanon, NH 03766-1487 www.iseesystems.com
Phone: 1-800-987-6758 / Fax: 603-643-9502 / Email: support@iseesystems.com

Karash Associates, Inc. (in partnership with The Graduate School, USDA)
Richard Karash, President
info: http://grad.usda.gov/olcc
Info: Richard@Karash.com +1 617-227-0106

LBS
www.london.edu/execed
London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA, UK
execinfo@london.edu phone +44 (0)20 7706 6728 Fax: +44 (0)20 7724 6051

Minase BV
Paul Bogerd, Kim van Oorschot, Henk Akkermans
PO Box 278, 5000 AG Tilburg, The Netherlands
tel. +31 13 5443468, fax +31 13 5446864
email: info@minase.nl
www.minase.nl


MIT Distance Course
contact Jim Hines email: jhines@mit.edu


MIT - Executive Courses
http://mitsloan.mit.edu/execed/epp/cour ... namics.php - Business
Dynamics taught by John Sterman and Nelson Repenning
http://mitsloan.mit.edu/execed/epp/cour ... namics.php - System
Dynamics for Senior Managers taught by John Sterman, Nelson Repenning and
Jim Hines

Nijmegen University
Etiënne Rouwette, Methodology Department, Nijmegen University Thomas van
Aquinostraat 1.2.31, PO Box 9108, 6500 HK Nijmegen, The Netherlands tel +31
24 3611468, fax +31 24 3611599, email E.Rouwette@nsm.kun.nl

Pegasus
LeAnne Grillo - Vice President and Conference Director Pegasus
Communications, Inc.
One Moody Street, Waltham, MA 02453-5339 voice 781-398-9700 fax 781-894-7079
www.pegasuscom.com


Phrontis
Tony Gill
Phrontis Limited, Beacon House, Horn Hill Road, Adderbury, Banbury, OX17
3EU, UK http://www.phrontis.com/traincal.htm email: TonyGill@phrontis.com
Phone: +44
(0)1295 812262 Fax: +44 (0)1295 812511

POWERSIM Norway
Janecke Pemmer
Powersim AS, Sandbrugaten 5-7, N-5835 Bergen, Norway
Tel: +47 55 60 65 40 , Fax.: +47 55 60 65 01,
e-mail: janecke.pemmer@powersim.no, www.powersim.com


Savannah Simulations
Alex Schmid
Alte Dorfstrasse 24, 8704 Herrliberg, Switzerland Tel. +41 1 790 17 14
E-mail a.schmid@savannah-simulations.ch
http://www.savannah-simulations.ch/stra ... vices.html

Strategy Dynamics Solutions
Jules Wright
131 - 151 Great Titchfield Street, London W1W 5BB UK
Tel: +44 207 886 8186 Email: jules@strategydynamics.com
http://www.strategydynamicssolutions.co ... oner1.html


The University Center (in partnership with Facilitated Systems)
3201 Smith Ave, Ste 200, Everett WA 98201 Gina Murray, Coordinator of
Student Services mailto:gina.murray@universitycenters.info
+1 425-259-8602
http://www.universitycenters.info/


University of Cambridge, UK
Clare Dennis
Events Coordinator
The Cambridge-MIT Institute Ltd
10 Miller's Yard
Mill Lane
Cambridge CB2 1RQ
Tel: +44 (1223) 327207 Fax: +44 (1223) 765891 email: c.dennis@cmi.cam.ac.uk
www.cambridge-mit.org


Ventana Systems, Inc.
60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard MA 01451
USA
508 651 0432
Fax 508 650 5422
email: vensim@vensim.com
http://www.vensim.com


Ventana Systems UK Ltd
Lee Jones - Director
Ventana Systems UK Ltd, 12 James Street, Oxton, Wirral, CH43 5RD, United
Kingdom
tel. +44(0)151 513 9779 fax. +44(0)70 9202 4736
www.ventanasystems.co.uk






Posted by ""Tony Gill"" <Tony.Gill@phrontis.com>
posting date Fri, 6 May 2005 11:27:19 +0100
Alan Graham Alan.Graham paconsul
Junior Member
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Game theory and data mining

Post by Alan Graham Alan.Graham paconsul »

Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
Thanks to Paulo Goncalves for pointing out the error in the 6th line of the
path to the report on PA's 3G wireless competition analysis using SD and
optimization. The correct version is:


>> http://www.ofta.gov.hk/
>> ""English""
>> ""Industry focus""
>> ""Mobile Network / Services""
>> ""Consultation Papers & Submissions""
>> ""Submissions""
>> ""2 July 2004""
>> ""Submissions on Consultation Paper for 'Licensing of Mobile Services on Expiry of Existing Licenses for Second Generation Mobile Services' - Analysis of Comments Received, Preliminary Conclusions and Further Consultation""
>> #60 ""Hutchison Telephone Company Limited & Hutchison 3G (HK) Limited""
>> #60c ""PA Consulting Group""


cheers,

Alan
Posted by ""Alan Graham"" <Alan.Graham@paconsulting.com>
posting date Fri, 6 May 2005 21:25:44 -0400
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