QUERY Counter-insurgency and crime modeling

[Daniel MacInnis babygrandus yaho]

Posted by Daniel MacInnis <babygrandus@yahoo.com> All,

I'm a Commander in the Naval Reserves serving in Iraq, and a MIT System Design & Management (SDM) graduate.
Witnessing the insurgency / counter-insurgency system behavior first hand has me interested in finding out if the problem has been analyzed with System Dynamics.
Requesting if anyone knows of any
research/literature/models on the subject. The problem also seems to be similar to policy resistance of anti-crime efforts, so if anyone knows of any research in that field, it may be applicable to analyzing this problem.

Thanks,

CDR Dan MacInnis, USN
Iraq
Posted by Daniel MacInnis <babygrandus@yahoo.com> posting date Wed, 4 Oct 2006 12:39:18 -0700 (PDT)

[Malczynski Leonard A lamalcz san]

Posted by ""Malczynski, Leonard A"" <lamalcz@sandia.gov> Dan,

The classic (1980's) work is by R.G. Coyle, ""A System Description of Counter Insurgency Warfare"", Policy Science 18 (1985) 55-78. I have sent it to a New York Times reporter in the past. Email me for the paper.

Len Malczynski
Posted by ""Malczynski, Leonard A"" <lamalcz@sandia.gov> posting date Thu, 5 Oct 2006 15:04:54 -0600

[Kim Warren Kim strategydynamics.]

Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com> Hi Daniel .. It may be only a small help, but colleagues and I put together an illustrative paper-based assessment on the outbreak of peace in Sierra Leone that I would be happy to send you. I also have a current student examining a similar issue on a small project he is doing for me at London Business School.

Kim Warren
Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com> posting date Thu, 5 Oct 2006 15:43:37 +0100

[Kim Jinnett Kim ibiweb.org]

Posted by ""Kim Jinnett"" <Kim@ibiweb.org> RAND might be a good source. I'd be surprised if they haven't run some models in this area. I know they've done work in anti-crime and terrorism. http://www.rand.org.

Posted by ""Kim Jinnett"" <Kim@ibiweb.org> posting date Thu, 5 Oct 2006 09:32:28 -0700

[Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano imart]

Posted by ""Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano"" <imartinez@albany.edu> Dan,

One very interesting paper that deals with Insurgency is Ed Anderson's ""A Preliminary System Dynamics Model of Insurgency Management: The Anglo-Irish War of 1916-21 as a Case Study."" Ed presented his work here at the Lab and at the Conference in Nijmegen. You can download his paper from the conference's website at:

http://www.systemdynamics.org/conf2006/ ... /index.htm

Best,

Nacho

-- Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano, Ph.D.
Decision and Information Sciences
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue, Bldg. 900 Argonne, IL 60439 Posted by ""Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano"" <imartinez@albany.edu> posting date Thu, 5 Oct 2006 09:33:50 -0500 (CDT)

[Jörn Wolfgang Ewaldt Joern.Ewald]

Posted by Jörn Wolfgang Ewaldt <Joern.Ewaldt@barkawi.com> There is another article by Coyle:

Coyle, Geoffrey R.:
A methodology for understanding military complexity: the case of the Rhodesian counter-insurgency campaign, Small Wars and Insurgencies, 6, 1996 (3), 360-378.

Regards
Joern

--------------------------------------------
Joern W. Ewaldt
Barkawi & Partner GmbH & Co. KG
International Management Support
Heilmannstr. 1
D-81479 Munich
Germany
Posted by Jörn Wolfgang Ewaldt <Joern.Ewaldt@barkawi.com> posting date Fri, 6 Oct 2006 17:50:03 +0200

[Edward Anderson {andersone} Edwa]

Posted by ""Edward Anderson {andersone}"" <Edward.Anderson@mccombs.utexas.edu>
Dear Commander:

I have an electronic copy of Geoff Coyle's classic work (which is hard to get at electronically) if you are so interested. There are a couple of other less well-known SD pieces I have access to that I would be glad to send off to you once I have returned to the U.S. (in about 10 days) if you are interested in them.

You hit the nail on the head with policy resistance. My paper is strictly a proof-of-concept case study. However, even that showed that successful insurgency suppression requires a relatively complex policy bundle for complete success. Otherwise, you are often left with a smoldering rebellion.

I've read a lot of non-SD literature on insurgency. However, frankly, the most interesting one I've found thus far is the popular work by Robert Kaplan, titled _Imperial Grunts_. You would also find interesting--on the slight chance you haven't read it already--the US Marine Corps' _Small Wars Manual_.

Please let me know if there is any other way I might be of assistance.

Sincerely,

Edward G. Anderson Jr., Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Operations Management - IC2 RGK Centennial Fellow University of Texas McCombs School of Business Posted by ""Edward Anderson {andersone}"" <Edward.Anderson@mccombs.utexas.edu>
posting date Sat, 7 Oct 2006 00:52:44 -0500

[Kesten Green kesten paradise.net]

Posted by Kesten Green <kesten@paradise.net.nz> I'd be interested to see empirical evidence on the relative accuracy of predictions that system dynamics models provide of the decisions that leaders of insurgencies or criminal gangs will make.

For those of you who are also interested in predictive validity, there is evidence on the relative accuracy of forecasts of decisions in conflict situations from unaided judgment (the usual method!), game theorists, structured analogies, and simulated interactions (a type of role playing) under Papers at www.conflictforecasting.com. There is also evidence on the effect of expertise on forecast accuracy.

Kesten Green

Dr Kesten C Green
Decision Research Ltd. &
Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University.
Posted by Kesten Green <kesten@paradise.net.nz> posting date Sun, 08 Oct 2006 13:50:19 +1300

[Radzicki Michael J mjradz WPI.ED]

Posted by ""Radzicki, Michael J"" <mjradz@WPI.EDU> Dear Colleagues:

For some more on the dynamics of insurgency see my paper with Oleg Pavlov and Khalid Saeed titled: ""Stability in a Superpower-Dominated Global Economic System [JEI 39(2)]. For an electronic copy, point your browser to:

http://www.michaeljosephradzicki.com/research.htm


The paper is only 10 pages long, as we were given a page limitation.

Oleg and Khalid have extended the analysis in another paper on ""dynastic cycles,"" but you'll have to contact them for a copy (saeed@wpi.edu ; opavlov@wpi.edu ).

Cheers.

Mike Radzicki
Posted by ""Radzicki, Michael J"" <mjradz@WPI.EDU> posting date Sun, 8 Oct 2006 11:04:10 -0400

[Justin Lyon simudyne gmail.com]

Posted by Justin Lyon <simudyne@gmail.com> Dan,

Yes, system dynamics and simulation in general are powerful tools for analyzing insurgency / counter-insurgency system behavior in Iraq as well as Afghanistan.

Check out this highly simplified example of the development of a strategic simulation architecture of the growth of terrorists in Afghanistan focusing on data from the 1980's:

http://s158641480.onlinehome.us/public/ ... 0-5_en.doc

It would be interesting to update with more current data and build a computer simulation for testing policy decisions in Afghanistan.

Building something like this for Iraq would also be an interesting exercise and would likely be extremely helpful in decision making. It would provide a clear dashboard of critical information to support counter-insurgency measures. It might even be appropriate to use in collaboration with Iraqi police forces as tool for tracking critical key performance indicators for early foresight into the future.

Let me know if you would like more information.

-- Best regards, Justin Lyon
Posted by Justin Lyon <simudyne@gmail.com> posting date Mon, 09 Oct 2006 16:08:08 +0100

[Jean-Jacques Laublé jean-jacques]

Posted by Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr> Hi Kesten

I thank you for your information on the site conflictforecasting.com.
It is a wealth of resources about the subject.
I have been pleased to know that a method called 'Field experiments' existed and will try to have some information about it.

I use something similar whenever I have the possibility in my business. It is unfortunately not always applicable.

It has to my opinion many advantages.
There are three main difficulties in any decision making.

1. A valid decision must be found.

2. The decision must be taken (often good decisions are not taken for
all sorts of reasons even if they look good.)

3. If the decision is taken, it must be correctly applied (there can
be implementation problems.)

By using field experiments I avoid the second and the third problem, because by making repeated experiments, I exercise applying decisions and implementing them.
So the only job that is necessary is observing the results so as to verify the first point.
This method does not need any preconceived methodology and is very action oriented.

The big drawback is that it is necessary to be very close to the field and preferably working in the middle of it and this takes a lot of time, because reality needs a lot of time to be observed as it is.

Another difficulty about decision making is that decision does not only depends on the problem but on the situation of the person making the decision.

And generally people explore a problem but wonder why the decision was not taken because they did not study the person taking the decision.

I will give a short example.
Suppose that a study is made about the viability of a business in the future using a method like SD for example, that tests in particularity the selling system of the business.

The model has been tested and is very credible.

Suppose that I am the owner of the business and that I am in two alternative
situations:
First I own a dozen other businesses of the same size.
Second the business is the only one I have, and the bankers ask me to give my personal caution. If the business fails, I risk my personal home plus all the savings that I have made so far.

The SD model may be sufficient in the first case, but not in the second.
In the second case, I would be much better secured by spending several weeks working with the sales men, visiting a lot of customers and knowing better the field.

This is to illustrate that a person with the same interests and with the same conclusions derived from a study may take different decisions depending on his personal situation.

In the case of the Irakien war I wonder how the three conditions exposed for a good decision to be taken can be met.
Regards.
Jean-Jacques Laublé.
Strasbourg France
Posted by Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr> posting date Mon, 9 Oct 2006 14:16:32 +0200