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how to calculate the standard error in vensim

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 10:43 am
by sally
i want to calculate the demand's STD,

can some one tell me how to do it?

does it have any function in vensim can use to calculate one variable's STD

thank you ....

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:38 pm
by bob@vensim.com
the stats tool will report the standard deviation of a variable over a simulation.

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:50 pm
by sally
i don't understand your meaning.

can you explain clear to me

thakn you ...

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 10:16 pm
by bob@vensim.com
Chapter 14 of the Refrence Manual describes the Stats tool.

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2006 6:04 am
by sally
thank you !

but if want to collect at t=1 STD, then use this number to calculate something

how to do it

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:56 am
by bob@vensim.com
You can only see current values in model equations. To get a standard deviation over time requires multiple time values. You may be able to invent some equations that compute this for past time - if you do post them here as other people may also be interested.

standard error

Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2006 12:42 pm
by LAUJJL
Hi

Joined a model where you have every time steps, a set of variables generated randomly but can be loaded from real data, and that calculates each time step, the mean and the standard deviation of the set of variables. Vensim pro needed.
Regards.
Jean-Jacques Laublé

Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 2:41 am
by sally
hi,

if the experience is not a set, just a constant or a uumber, can i use this model?

because i want to calculate the demand's STD, and every week's demand is different, i want to get the STD, then to calculate the ROP.

hope you know my means,

thank you .

standard deviation

Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 6:53 am
by LAUJJL
Hi

You need to be more explicit about your needs.

The standard deviation is not necessarily the solution to your problem.

If you want the std from a variable, you have to define a trend for that variable, wich is for every time step, an expected value for that variable base on its historical data, and then calculate the standard deviation of the real value from that expected value.
The simpler solution and generally the more efficient to predict the demand is to take a running average eventually
weighted with the oldness of the data.
Did you study the afore mentioned chapters from business dynamic's?
Regards.
JJ