forecasting a demand

Mikka · Post by **Mikka** » Tue Jun 26, 2007 7:24 pm

hi!

I want to forecast a demand in vensim. My demand function is a mix out of 4 different funtions (see attachment). What is the best way to do it?

bob@vensim.com · Post by **bob@vensim.com** » Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:24 am

The best forecast for a random variable is the mean value. The other inputs are all deterministic so you can just shift them in time to get the forecast. Alternatively just use the SMOOTH function - it will miss the trend but basically behaves quite well with all other inputs (unless pulses or cycles are deterministic).