Ventana software support forum

Posted by Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan@yahoo.com>

Dear Sir,

In an evaluation of public policy, there are four analyses:

public hearing,
cost-benefit analysis,
technical feasibility study, and
system dynamic modeling.

>From system dynamics' perspective, which analysis should be
given a serious consideration first? There are different questions assigned for these activities:

Public hearing: Would the public want to accept the proposed policy?
Cost-benefit analysis: Is the implementation cost affordable?
Technical analysis: Can the proposed policy be implemented?
SD modeling: Is the proposed policy effective?

Provided that the above questions are equally difficult to answer and will require a comparable amount of time, money, and effort to get the right answer, which of these questions should be addressed first?

Could you explian why SD modeling should be (or should not be) conducted prior to passing the other three analyses?

M.K.

Monte Kietpawpan
Faculty of Environmental Management
Prince of Songkla University
Songkhla, 90112, Thailand
Posted by Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan@yahoo.com> posting date Fri, 17 Aug 2007 02:28:49 -0700 (PDT) _______________________________________________

Posted by ""Geoff McDonnell"" <gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au>

Monte,
It is difficult to answer what is the appropriate process/order without knowing the purpose of your analysis.

In using the term ""evaluation"" you may have restricted the boundary of your problem too narrowly.

If you wish to understand the policy process in order to improve policy change (for a particular group or interests) then you may have to include the dynamics of framing, problem /solution interaction, consensus and implementation.

Also the political dimension requires a broader view of decision- making as purely analytical.

Good SD modeling would provide an overall framework for all this, IMHO, particularly in its focus on mitigating unintended consequences and overcoming policy resistance.

You may find some useful ideas in the recently updated 2nd edition of

Theories of the Policy Process Ed Paul A Sabatier 2nd Ed 2007 Westview Press Boulder Colorado ISBN-13: 978-0-8133-4359-4

rgds
Geoff McDonnell
Director Adaptive Care Systems
University of New South Wales, Sydney
AUSTRALIA
Posted by ""Geoff McDonnell"" <gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au> posting date Sun, 19 Aug 2007 07:45:08 +1000 _______________________________________________