QUERY SD model of the US Economy
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 7:06 am
Posted by Carl Betterton <Carl.Betterton@citadel.edu>
Hi everyone,
Here in the US we are experiencing a financial situation that is less
than happy right now. It seemed to begin, at least in the public mind
and media coverage, with the housing ""melt down"" or contraction of the
housing ""bubble"" and related rapid decline in mortgage industry assets.
It is more complicated than that; as a small example some have said it
was the easy high-leverage credit policies that was an underlying cause.
What I am wondering is this - does anyone knows of a SD model of the US
economy that would have or could have demonstrated to policy makers and
the general public, in advance, the potential outcome to the economy? If
so, was it used and advertised to people? I for one did not see it. This
might have qualified as one of Kim Warren's indicators of SD success.
Such a model would almost certainly contain some of the ""soft"" variables
about which Alan McLucas recently started an interesting thread. And the
recent thread on root cause analysis is also highly relevant.
Perhaps you will point out many SD models, but if no SD model exists, I
suggest we begin to build such a model. Recent discussions of
collaborative model building make me think members of this list could
start such a model and at the same time explore the issues of
collaborative building of a publicly accessible model. I am assuming
that government policy makers and some academics (perhaps in economics)
have built and maintain econometric models. Not quite the same as SD
models, but could be a starting point. This could be a gradual,
long-term project (years) to raise public awareness of SD, learn and
demonstrate collaborative model building, and perform a beneficial
public service. If we can give the project legs, we might even garner
funding downstream to keep it going. There could be counterpart models
for other nations, with linkages. There are so many possibilities it is
hard to believe this has not been done already.
What do you think?
Kind regards,
Carl
Carl E. Betterton, P. E., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
School of Business
The Citadel
Posted by Carl Betterton <Carl.Betterton@citadel.edu>
posting date Fri, 11 Apr 2008 12:47:13 -0400
_______________________________________________
Hi everyone,
Here in the US we are experiencing a financial situation that is less
than happy right now. It seemed to begin, at least in the public mind
and media coverage, with the housing ""melt down"" or contraction of the
housing ""bubble"" and related rapid decline in mortgage industry assets.
It is more complicated than that; as a small example some have said it
was the easy high-leverage credit policies that was an underlying cause.
What I am wondering is this - does anyone knows of a SD model of the US
economy that would have or could have demonstrated to policy makers and
the general public, in advance, the potential outcome to the economy? If
so, was it used and advertised to people? I for one did not see it. This
might have qualified as one of Kim Warren's indicators of SD success.
Such a model would almost certainly contain some of the ""soft"" variables
about which Alan McLucas recently started an interesting thread. And the
recent thread on root cause analysis is also highly relevant.
Perhaps you will point out many SD models, but if no SD model exists, I
suggest we begin to build such a model. Recent discussions of
collaborative model building make me think members of this list could
start such a model and at the same time explore the issues of
collaborative building of a publicly accessible model. I am assuming
that government policy makers and some academics (perhaps in economics)
have built and maintain econometric models. Not quite the same as SD
models, but could be a starting point. This could be a gradual,
long-term project (years) to raise public awareness of SD, learn and
demonstrate collaborative model building, and perform a beneficial
public service. If we can give the project legs, we might even garner
funding downstream to keep it going. There could be counterpart models
for other nations, with linkages. There are so many possibilities it is
hard to believe this has not been done already.
What do you think?
Kind regards,
Carl
Carl E. Betterton, P. E., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
School of Business
The Citadel
Posted by Carl Betterton <Carl.Betterton@citadel.edu>
posting date Fri, 11 Apr 2008 12:47:13 -0400
_______________________________________________