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Posted: **Thu Apr 02, 1998 3:15 pm**

Hi Van Bowen,

As you are thinking to treat college drinking problem as a campus
epidemic and wanted to know about the main drivers of this epidemic,
here are some comments:

One of the driving force could be GROUP PRESSURE. It is often observed
that a group of five may have no one smoking or all of them smoking. It
is the pressure of the group that derives group behavior. It is, thus,
very difficult for a single person to remain no-smoker while all the
other members are smoking. I think this analogy is applicable to
drinking situation.

Another starting point could be the TREDN MAKERS. This is similar to the
group pressure taken on a bigger group. Students follow, mostly, the
style and attitudes of a particular PERSON or GROUP that is popular and
thus could act as a trend maker group.
I hope you could find it interesting and go for further digging into it.

Good Luck
*******************************************************
J A M A L N A S I R
From: Jamal Nasir <jamal@mot.chalmers.se>
Dept. of Systems Management
CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
S-412 96 Gothenburg, SWEDEN
Tel: +46 31 772 2491(Off.), +46 31 488093(Res.)
Fax: +46 31 772 2497
http://www.mot.chalmers.se/staff/jamal.html
<http://www.mot.chalmers.se/staff/jamal.html>
********************************************************

Posted: **Fri Apr 03, 1998 9:37 am**

Gary Hirsch mentioned a herion addiction model that may be relevant to
modeling alcohol addiction in College students.
We have constructed a herion addiction model using our simulation modeling
tool, ModelMaker. If this may be of interest to you, please see the
following web page:

http://cherwell.com/modelmaker/mm-examples.html

Peter Bispham
--- ---
Dr Peter Bispham CPhys | email: peter.bispham@cherwell.com
Senior Developer | Phone: +44 (0)1865 784812
Cherwell Scientific Publishing | Fax: +44 (0)1865 784801
Oxford OX4 4GA, UK | URL: http://www.cherwell.com
--- ---

Posted: **Thu Apr 30, 1998 9:55 am**

Van Bowen asked about modeling student drinking on college campuses.

I dont know of any models of alcohol use per se, but there is a model of
heroin addiction that may be relevant, at least as a source of ideas on how to
model the student drinking problem. In the early 1970s, Ed Roberts, Gil
Levin and I developed a model of heroin addiction in an urban community. The
model had a number of positive loops that produced epidemic-like growth
including one through drug-associated culture as well as the more obvious ones
through heroin supply and simple contagion. Another key element of the model
was the role of the communitys response in making the problem more
persistent. Again, this may have some relevance to the student drinking
problem.

The work was written up in a book by the three of us called The Persistent
Poppy: A Computer-Aided Search for Heroin Policy which is now out of print,
but may be available in some libraries. The work also appears as a chapter in
Ed Roberts book on Managerial Applications of System Dynamics and in an
article in the June, 1972 issue of the American Journal of Public Health.
Jack Homer has also modeled cocaine prevalence which may have some relevance
as well.

Gary Hirsch
GBHirsch@aol.com

Posted: **Thu Oct 29, 1998 3:04 pm**

Hello All:

I am about to work on a project - a model
for the students development of serious
drinking on US campuses. Do you know anyone
who has worked on such a model? I am
treating it as a campus epidemic and have
no idea of the things which drive it.

Van Bowen

Professor of Mathematics
Math & CS Department
University of Richmond
Virginia 23173 vbowen@richmond.edu
804-289-8081 http://www.mathcs.richmond.edu/~bowen/

"Learn never to allow your behavior to stop your learning."

Posted: **Fri Oct 30, 1998 9:28 am**

Van Bowen,

What is the reference mode? I think it is that college drinking (and
use of drugs) is and has been high for decades. Why? (Alternatively,
it could be that **concern** about college drinking is rising -- why?).

If the issue is college drinking itself: I think that one dynamic
hypothesis is a shifting-the-burden structure. New college entrants
enter a highly social environment for which they are unprepared. A
quick solution is alchohol which makes them **feel** that they are
successfully negotiating the social rapids (and which may in fact make
them more successful socially -- I dont know). The fundamental
solution, though is to endure the uncomfortable moments and hours and
figure out how to be cool without alchohol or drugs.

An amplifying dynamic hypothese is that the social environment is
altered by so many people drinking. In order to enter into the fun of
it, it helps to get drunk, too. I have never been sober at a drunken
party, but I wouldnt want to be.

Regards,
Jim Hines
From: Jim Hines <jimhines@interserv.com>
LeapTec and MIT

Posted: **Fri Oct 30, 1998 10:57 am**

Dr. Bowen:

There are some excellent published SD models dealing with alcoholism as a=
n
individual problem, and others dealing with illegal drugs (spec., cocaine=

and heroin) as a social problem. I am not aware of any published SD mode=
ls
on alcohol as a social problem. My own work on the socioeconomics of
cocaine use has been presented in several articles, most notably System
Dynamics Review 9(1): 49-78, 1993. =

Jack Homer
Homer Consulting
Voorhees, New Jersey
jackbhomer@compuserve.com

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 1998 9:22 am**

Jim,

I think, there is also a sliding goal archetype present in the college
drinking process. Drinking might relieve a perception of social awkwardness
in the short run (negative feedback), but addiction resulting from it would
create a social outcast in the long run exacerbating the need to escape,
while the physioilogical processes would simultaneously further increase
the need to drink.

Khalid
From: Khalid Saeed <saeed@WPI.EDU>

_____________________________________
Khalid Saeed
Professor and Department Head
Social Science and Policy Studies
W. P. I., 100 Institute Road
Worcester, MA 01609, USA

Ph: 508-831-5563; fax: 508-831-5896

http://www.wpi.edu/Academics/Depts/SSPS/

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 1998 2:02 pm**

Khalid,

Im not clear on what goal is sliding. The drinkers goal remains to be
socially at ease.

Also, as much as we would like to think that drinkers are social outcasts, Im
not sure thats the case. An unfortunate process might involve a positive loop
in which drinking becomes increasingly acceptable and NOT drinking becomes
socially unacceptable. Here, I am thinking back to my own undergraduate days
(a long time passed!)

Regards,
Jim Hines
From: Jim Hines <jimhines@interserv.com>
MIT and LeapTec

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 1998 9:47 am**

Jim,

I think the need to drink is the sliding goal, which indeed would be
further intensified by the increasing acceptance you have described. I
agree social outcast is an inaccurate term. We are perhaps dealing more
with self perception than with the others perception. Self-perception of
awkwardness should, therefore, also slide as a drinking habbit forms.

Best,

Khalid
From: Khalid Saeed <saeed@WPI.EDU>
_____________________________________
Khalid Saeed
Professor and Department Head
Social Science and Policy Studies
W. P. I., 100 Institute Road
Worcester, MA 01609, USA

Ph: 508-831-5563; fax: 508-831-5896

http://www.wpi.edu/Academics/Depts/SSPS/

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