>Another recent example is the work by Bob Johannsen from
>Portland State University using stock-and-flow modeling to help deal with
>the problems at the Multnomah County Sheriffs Office.
I havent worked to any extent on this problem, but I did sketch out a
model about 6 months ago after reading an article in the Portland paper
(BTW, Portland is in Multnomah County).
disconnected facts:
1. It seems as though hit-run fender benders have been increasing
significantly over the past few years. (not necessarily more hits, but
more runs.)
2. Drivers licenses are suspended for many reasons, including drunk
driving, failure to pay fines, etc. etc. However, many people continue to
drive with no license.
3. It would seem that if one were stopped for a routine minor offense, and
found NOT to have a license, that jail would be reasonable. After all, the
license was withdrawn for good reason, and the perpetrator is flaunting the
law.
However, the courts and the jails are overcrowded, so the penalties are
largely ignored in these circumstances.
4. If a driver is in an accident, and does not have a license, he or she
might very well be taken to jail.
5. If my car is hit by an unlicensed driver, there is a real incentive for
the driver to flee.
Connecting the dots:
I would guess that the system, which contributes to an increasing number
of unlicensed drivers, is significantly increasing the possibility that I
will be the victim of a hit-run. Obviously, exactly the opposite of what
the system is trying to do (as is most often the case!).
ed
(Ed Gallaher)
gallaher@teleport.com