tomfid wrote:If you can post the model, we can dump the ordered equations in about 10 seconds.
tomfid wrote:If you can post the model, we can dump the ordered equations in about 10 seconds.
Seems like I am using the wrong version
Anyway, as time is become a factor (for my thesis) I am posting the model.
{UTF-8}
"% reduction in max income"=
0
~ Dmnl
~ |
Adjusted maximum income=
Initial maximum income-step(Initial maximum income*"% reduction in max income",2015)
~ dollar/person
~ -step(100000,2015) The carrying capacity of the environment. Defined as 1 \
for testing (100% of its value).
|
carrying capacity=
50000
~ rhino
~ 27837=4454/0.16 (0.16 proportion of carrying capacity rhinos 1985 \
(Milner-Gulland&Leader Williams 1992) 4454 estimated population 1985) but \
this is for LV, Zambia. Need to get better estimate of K (perhaps by \
obtaining area of game reserves and multiply by MG&LW's figure of 0.4km2 \
for K)
|
change in price=
IF THEN ELSE(target price > price,
(target price - price)/time to adjust price up,
(target price-price)/time to adjust price down)
~ dollar/kg/year
~ |
conv rhino to kg=
1
~ kg/rhino
~ |
demand=
(reference demand * effect price demand+reference demand*effect income demand)
~ rhino/year
~ |
effect income demand=
EXP(IncomeElasticity* LN(Income/reference income))
~ Dmnl
~ |
effect price demand=
EXP(-price elasticity * LN(price/reference price))
~ Dmnl
~ |
expected demand=
MIN(max(SMOOTH(demand,time to form expectations),0),Rhino population/time to adjust
)*SimpleAcceptance
~ rhino/year
~ |
fraction of carrying capacity=
(Rhino population/(carrying capacity))^(z)
~ Dmnl
~ |
Fractional Net Income=
Maximum Fractional Net income * (1 - Income/Adjusted maximum income)
~ 1/year
~ The fractional net birth rate is a linearly declining function of the \
population relative to carrying capacity.
|
Income= INTEG (
Increase in income,
Initial income Fraction * Adjusted maximum income)
~ dollar/person
~ The population accumulates the net birth rate. Initialized to a fraction \
of the carrying capacity.
|
IncomeElasticity=
LookUp(Time)
~
~ |
Increase in income=
Fractional Net Income * Income
~ dollar/person/year
~ The net birth rate is the product of the fractional net birth rate and \
population.
|
Initial income Fraction=
0.001
~ Dmnl
~ The initial population as a fraction of the carrying capacity.
|
Initial maximum income=
216000
~ dollar/person
~ |
initial price=
1762
~ dollar/kg
~ 100
|
intrinsic growth rate=
0.061
~ 1/year
~ 0.16 (MG&LW)
|
LookUp(
[(1980,0)-(2050,10)],(1980,3.34),(2017,3.34),(2022,1.5),(2050,1.5))
~
~ |
Maximum Fractional Net income=
0.094
~ 1/year
~ The maximum fractional growth rate is set to 1, thus scaling time so that \
1 time unit = 1/g* (yielding the standard logistic curve).
|
maximum price=
135000
~ dollar/kg
~ |
net birth rate=
max(intrinsic growth rate*Rhino population,0)
~ rhino/year
~ |
price= INTEG (
change in price,
initial price)
~ dollar/kg
~ |
price elasticity=
0.1
~ Dmnl
~ |
reference demand=
10
~ rhino/year
~ |
reference income=
840
~ dollar/person
~ 100
|
reference price=
100
~ dollar/kg
~ |
removals=
MIN(IF THEN ELSE((Rhino population/time to adjust)>((fraction of carrying capacity)*\
Rhino population/time to adjust+expected demand
),(fraction of carrying capacity)*Rhino population/time to adjust+expected demand,Rhino population\
/time to adjust),Rhino population*(1+intrinsic growth rate))
~ rhino/year
~ |
Rhino population= INTEG (
net birth rate-removals,
3525)
~ rhino
~ 0.6289
|
SimpleAcceptance=
1
~
~ |
target price=
MIN(
XIDZ(target revenue,expected demand*conv rhino to kg,maximum price),
maximum price)
~ dollar/kg
~ |
target revenue=
5e+007
~ dollar/year
~ 10000+STEP(5000, 10)
|
time to adjust=
0.7
~ year
~ 1
|
time to adjust price down=
6
~ year
~ |
time to adjust price up=
50
~ year
~ 4
|
time to form expectations=
4.7
~ year
~ 1
|
z=
7
~ Dmnl
~ 7 MG&LW92
|
********************************************************
.Control
********************************************************~
Simulation Control Parameters
|
FINAL TIME = 2050
~ year
~ The final time for the simulation.
|
INITIAL TIME = 1980
~ year
~ The initial time for the simulation.
|
SAVEPER =
TIME STEP
~ year [0,?]
~ The frequency with which output is stored.
|
TIME STEP = 1
~ year [0,?]
~ The time step for the simulation.
|
\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*View 1
$192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0
10,1,Rhino population,487,197,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,2,carrying capacity,405,282,53,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,3,fraction of carrying capacity,534,279,60,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,4,intrinsic growth rate,305,87,48,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,5,48,291,197,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,6,8,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(413,197)|
1,7,8,5,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(334,197)|
11,8,48,374,197,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,9,net birth rate,374,216,40,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,10,1,8,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(409,146)|
10,11,z,454,345,5,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,12,2,3,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(488,255)|
1,13,11,3,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(529,285)|
12,14,48,687,197,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,15,17,14,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(642,197)|
1,16,17,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(561,197)|
11,17,48,602,197,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,18,removals,602,216,29,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,19,4,9,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(366,155)|
1,20,1,3,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(488,232)|
1,21,3,18,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(604,255)|
1,22,1,18,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(562,156)|
10,23,time to adjust,685,152,43,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,24,23,18,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(634,166)|
10,25,effect price demand,1021,438,36,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,26,price,944,495,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,27,demand,891,432,26,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,28,time to adjust price up,688,561,43,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,29,25,27,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(977,437)|
1,30,26,25,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(967,456)|
10,31,price elasticity,1104,487,45,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,32,31,25,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1064,488)|
1,33,28,39,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(789,541)|
10,34,initial price,956,545,34,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,35,48,768,494,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,36,38,26,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(875,494)|
1,37,38,35,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(806,494)|
11,38,48,840,494,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,39,change in price,840,513,47,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,40,26,39,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(896,533)|
10,41,reference price,1172,454,47,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,42,41,25,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1158,443)|
10,43,time to adjust price down,797,588,43,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,44,43,39,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(828,541)|
1,45,34,26,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(953,531)|
10,46,expected demand,796,434,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,47,27,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(857,432)|
10,48,time to form expectations,617,375,40,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,49,48,46,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(715,377)|
10,50,reference demand,1028,399,56,11,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,51,50,27,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(902,402)|
10,52,target revenue,633,421,45,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,53,target price,694,471,36,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,54,52,53,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(666,455)|
1,55,46,53,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(726,454)|
1,56,53,39,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(770,507)|
10,57,maximum price,585,572,48,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,58,57,53,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(619,482)|
10,59,effect income demand,845,348,43,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,60,reference income,1031,323,54,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,61,60,59,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(932,347)|
1,62,59,27,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(847,405)|
1,63,46,18,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(656,249)|
10,64,Income,995,194,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,65,48,832,194,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,66,68,64,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(929,194)|
1,67,68,65,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(866,194)|
11,68,48,897,194,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,69,Increase in income,897,222,58,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,70,Adjusted maximum income,987,83,61,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,71,Fractional Net Income,857,126,46,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,72,64,69,1,0,0,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(979,254)|
1,73,71,69,1,0,0,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(854,193)|
1,74,70,71,1,0,0,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(915,95)|
1,75,64,71,1,0,0,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(937,120)|
10,76,Maximum Fractional Net income,734,82,66,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,77,76,71,1,0,0,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(826,119)|
10,78,Initial income Fraction,1127,195,42,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,79,70,64,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(990,131)|
1,80,78,64,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(1066,194)|
10,81,Initial maximum income,1135,52,49,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,82,81,70,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1059,58)|
10,83,"% reduction in max income",1147,135,61,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,84,83,70,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1050,136)|
1,85,64,59,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1000,221)|
1,86,1,46,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(527,391)|
1,87,23,46,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(778,287)|
1,88,4,18,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(477,101)|
10,89,conv rhino to kg,530,477,51,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,90,89,53,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(588,464)|
12,91,0,620,144,40,20,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,92,Time,866,264,26,11,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128
10,93,LookUp,791,266,28,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,94,IncomeElasticity,849,303,51,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,95,93,94,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(813,280)|
1,96,92,94,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(860,277)|
1,97,94,59,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(848,314)|
10,98,SimpleAcceptance,646,333,59,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,99,98,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(708,375)|
///---\\\
:L<%^E!@
1:CurrentCBM.vdf
1:CurrentNoCBM.vdf
1:Current.vdf
9:CurrentCBM
23:0
15:0,0,0,0,0,0
19:100,0
27:0,
34:0,
4:Time
5:SimpleAcceptance
35:Date
36:YYYY-MM-DD
37:2000
38:1
39:1
40:0
41:0
42:1
24:1980
25:2050
26:2050
Thanks a lot!