Ventana software support forum

Hi,

I am looking for SD models for demand forecasting in the context of product consumers and supply chain. Can anyone share models or guidelines for modeling demand in general in SD?

We do a ton of that, but the models are usually proprietary. http://www.ventanasystems.com/model_typ ... marketing/

"Demand forecasting" is a bit too broad to answer - demand for what? Over what horizon? For what purpose?

Have you searched the SD conference archives?

I am looking for "generic structures" for demand forecasting in system dynamics. below is an article for a generic case of a supply chain (no product is mentioned in the article). a simple smoothing structure is used in this case.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ply_chains

in my case, the product is considered non-perishable. I need to develop a formula for "order decision" and calculate demand during lead time. if we know the rate of consumption how do we calculate an order decision to a supplier based on the available inventory at hand?

John Sterman's Business Dynamics has a whole chapter on this.

However, this isn't really "demand forecasting" - it's inventory management. The demand forecast here is just a SMOOTH of sales. Forecasting sales requires a dynamic model of the behavior and physics of customers that causes sales. For example, in pharma, you'd model the incidence and prevalence of a disease and patients' course of therapy.

This is sort of relevant as an example: http://metasd.com/2013/11/facebook-reloaded-2013/