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Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:29 am
by WayneZhou2009
Hi,

This might be a trivial question - why my payoff reporting file does not contain information on Goodness of Fit, Theil Statistics, and Absolute Errors? It only has information on Metadata & Contributions.

Many thanks.

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:54 pm
by WayneZhou2009
Hi,
Would anyone share some experience in this, please? Many thanks.

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:27 pm
by tomfid
The stats are only present for calibration elements.

I think there was a bug - now fixed - related to synthetic data stats, so check that your version is up to date.

Otherwise, we'd need to see the payoff file at a minimum.

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:38 pm
by WayneZhou2009
Hi Tom, thanks for your reply. I just updated my Vensim Pro to the latest version 7.3.5. But the problem remains. The following is all information contained in my .rep file after running a payoff optimization. Is there a way to show the full information, e.g. Goodness of Fit, etc?

The payoff is -20.5587
The following are the components of the payoff:
Type Component Contribution Percent Values Params Used Skipped
*P Total Log Likelihood/1 -20.5587 100 -20.5587 0 101 0

Sources for exogenous variables
Data of vehicle inventory Data for calibration 1.xlsx
Linear data of vehicle inventory Data for calibration 1.xlsx
Original Data of vehicle inventory Data for calibration 1.xlsx

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:26 pm
by tomfid
A policy (*P) payoff element has no statistics, because Vensim has no way to know what you're comparing.

If you want the built-in stats, you can use a mixed payoff, with *P for priors and penalty terms, and *C for model-data comparisons.