Demand Pattern

Use this forum to post Vensim related questions.
Post Reply
Jindu
Member
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:36 pm
Vensim version: PLE

Demand Pattern

Post by Jindu »

Hello
I am trying to look (model) into the future from the historical demand pattern. For example I used Lookup Forward (order cycle, time) for historical demand pattern. I am now trying to project orders into the future or use different kind of trend line like interpolation instead of repeating the same demand pattern any help or suggestion would really be appreciated in carrying out this task.
Regards.
Attachments
Experiment1a 121.mdl
(2.25 KiB) Downloaded 177 times
tomfid
Administrator
Posts: 3806
Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 4:54 am

Re: Demand Pattern

Post by tomfid »

You can use the FORECAST function to extrapolate. If that's not too your liking (it can be noise-sensitive) there are a lot of ways to modify it.
Jindu
Member
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:36 pm
Vensim version: PLE

Re: Demand Pattern

Post by Jindu »

Hi.
I am thankful for your suggestion. I have tried to use the FORECAST function to extrapolate as you suggested but it does not simulate but says –order cycle- is a special type and cannot be used as a normal variable. Any suggestion or information on how to solve this problem is really appreciated. An example of the structure is attached.
Many thanks and kind regards
Attachments
Experiment1a 111.mdl
(2.25 KiB) Downloaded 191 times
Administrator
Super Administrator
Posts: 4573
Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2003 3:10 am

Re: Demand Pattern

Post by Administrator »

You've got "Order cycle" as a lookup variable. I'd suggest creating a new variable called "actual order cycle"

actual order cycle = Order cycle (time)

Then change customer order rate,
customer order rate = FORECAST(actual order cycle, Time , 200 )
Advice to posters seeking help (it really helps us to help you)
http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/v ... f=2&t=4391

Units are important!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27509559
Jindu
Member
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:36 pm
Vensim version: PLE

Re: Demand Pattern

Post by Jindu »

Thanks for your suggestion it was helpful.
Post Reply