Sensitivity Graphs and Confedence Intervals

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johnjohnson4
Member
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2016 4:58 pm
Vensim version: PLE+

Sensitivity Graphs and Confedence Intervals

Post by johnjohnson4 »

I am running PLP. How do we interpret the confidence band in the sensitivity graph? I assume the line graph represents the mean. the colored areas represent the area of the confidence boundaries. But in the 50% confidence boundary, the average line is outside the boundary. How can this be?

Thanks in advance for you help.

v/r,
john
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Average is outside the 50% Confidence interval
Average is outside the 50% Confidence interval
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johnjohnson4
Member
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2016 4:58 pm
Vensim version: PLE+

Re: Sensitivity Graphs and Confedence Intervals

Post by johnjohnson4 »

Maybe I am wrong about the line graph. Maybe the line is not the average of the simulation runs at each point?
tomfid
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Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 4:54 am

Re: Sensitivity Graphs and Confedence Intervals

Post by tomfid »

The line in this case is your base run for Test A. That suggests that the parameters of the sensitivity analysis are not centered around the base case.

I guess the reason we only see the 50th percentile here is that the 75/95/100 values are set to white?
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