New internet pages on forecasting decisions in conflicts

[Kesten Green]

Im writing to let you know about conflictforecasting.com.

The conflictforecasting.com pages (http://www.conflictforecasting.com) are a
resource for researchers, practitioners, and others with an interest in how
best to predict the decisions people will make in conflicts, and in choosing
strategies for changing conflicts in order to improve outcomes. The pages
are located under "Special interest groups" on Wharton Professor J. Scott
Armstrongs forecastingprinciples.com pages
(http://www.forecastingprinciples.com). I would welcome any comments or
suggestions you might have.

As SD people would likely suspect, the evidence is that the most accurate
forecasts come from the method that most realistically simulates multiple
rounds of interactions between parties in conflicts. We call the method
"simulated interactions".

Supporting material, links to my IJF paper comparing game theory with other
forecasting methods, and commentaries on that research are available from
kestencgreen.com (http://www.kestencgreen.com).

Best regards
Kesten Green
Victoria Management School
Victoria University of Wellington
From: Kesten Green <kesten@paradise.net.nz>