fraud discussion on the SD list

[LAUJJL]

Hi,

Here is joined a model concerning the query on the SD list

Posted by "Swanson, John" <John.Swanson@sdgworld.net>
Can anyone point me to published work on System Dynamics and fraud prevention?

I have the following situation in mind. Large public transport systems will usually have people travelling without valid tickets, and the revenue loss can be substantial. So the operator might employ inspectors to patrol the system checking tickets and fining people who haven't paid. If you use enough inspectors people may see that they won't get away with it and fraud levels fall. Then management says 'why are we employing all these inspectors, there is no fraud?' and reduce their number ... so fraud rises again. It looks like a nice problem about finding the right balance between the cost of the inspectors and the lost / recovered revenue.

I've checked the Society's list of references, and sources like Sterman but not found anything directly analogous.

John Swanson
Associate
Steer Davies Gleave
28-32 Upper Ground, London SE1 9PD
e. John.Swanson@sdgworld.net
w. www.steerdaviesgleave.com
Posted by "Swanson, John" <John.Swanson@sdgworld.net>
posting date Fri, 26 Aug 2005 14:10:01 +0100

My answer is

You can find on the Vensim forum system dynamics subject a simple model
that I have starded on the subject. But by lack of time, I have not checked
it completely. So it has probably bugs in it, or the equations are too
simplistic, generally linear and when optimizing it reaches some values and
it behaves strangely. When I started it yesterday, I thought it was simple,
it is not.
The first model had a big bug in it.
Although it may be still bugged.
But it behaves rather normally.
I have changed the model since.
So for somebody that loaded the first one, it would be better
to load this one where the bug is cured.
Regards.

J.J. Laublé

[Edited on 7-1-2007 by LAUJJL]