Ventana software support forum

TO: Systems Dynamics Thinkers (SDers)
who practice in the "real" world

Please let me thank all of the participants in the discussion
of "Systems from the top?" (SD1623). Since I learned so much, I
decided that I should make an attempt to review what I think I
learned and ask that we not get too carried away with
additions to the responses - corrections desired!

A remedy for scurvy was known in 1601(James Lancaster), but the
British Board of Trade did not make full implementation until
1865 - a full 264 years to put into place a known remedy
{"Diffusion of Innovations"}. In comparison, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk
(1881-1938) renamed Constantinople and Angora and changed the
Turkish language significantly in less than two years, c.1930.
******************************************************************

I think I heard us mention three rates, three stocks, and a few
constants which have a major impact on the diffusion of SD in an
organization. Two are -

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| | |
===========|====================>| |
| |_____|
o o
-o - o- Billable Hours
o o
Consulting

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| |_____|
o o
-o - o- More Effective
o o Models
Modeling


Allow me to replace our use of the concepts of ownership,
buying in, and other terms indicating acceptance by others of
the SD way of looking at the world. I decided to use an
analogy which sounds a bit morose, but is a good SDers analogy -
becoming infected with SD; a communicable thought process
not limited to just a few people. As we journeyed in dialogue,
we identified some in organizations who are quarantined, some
who could not transmit the infection, and some who had
inherited a growing immune response (arguably a non-linear,
debilitating state of mind) to the SD way of thinking.

"We have had an interesting discussion of "Systems from
the top" to which Donella was responding. But the problem
of understanding systems cannot start from the top in the
public sector and seldom works in the private sector".(JF)

This means that those at the top are in quarantine,
in so far as becoming infected early. As qualified SDers
we should know that having a few who are not available for
infection has the least effect at the start of an epidemic.
These few should cause no trouble whatsoever in creating the
epidemic.

Some said that without power, a potential infectable
person cant transmit the infection and may as well be in
quarantine. We gain no advantage by using resources to
increase the chances that these people should be infected
early. This leaves us with an identifiable group with which
to create the epidemic.


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| | | | |
| |=============|===================>| |
|_____| | |_____|
Infectables o o Those Infected
________-o - o-_____________/
o o
Infecting

The modeling we reported doing, seemed to be a process focused
on infecting a few people, and then noting that "THEY" dont pass
it on. Some took the longer view, reasoning that the immune system
of the young is much less developed and that in twenty years
their influence will be massive if we can infect them now.

Most who read this summary (harangue) could place a few feedback
loops and see quickly how we need to think as we practice SD,
since we wish to be most effective. We know that as soon as we
get a certain fraction of the population infected, we have an
epidemic which cant be stopped, not even by CDC. I will
propose that if our SDing efforts include developing an effective
process of "flocking" (De Gues), we might create feedback which
assures a sustainable SD epidemic. Creating the opportunity for
the infected to pass it on to those who can "get it" is as
important as modeling with a few.

Our effectiveness in SD might depend on our willingness to walk
and talk our own thought.


Van Bowen
From: Van Bowen <vbowen@richmond.edu>

Professor of Mathematics
Math & CS Department
University of Richmond
Virginia 23173
804-289-8081 http://www.mathcs.urich.edu/~bowen/