"Diffusion of a not known methodology in an environment" sounded
interesting, though I couldnt exactly pin down the goal of the work.
Nevertheless, Im attaching some references I dug up in the past, mostly
motivated by my research on diffusion (or other positive feedback
processes) of energy conserving technology. I hope at least a few are helpful.
The Argote, Sharp, and Teplitz references are good summaries of learning
curves in manufacturing - not really diffusion models, but a common way of
looking at technical evolution in general.
The Arrow and Kremer models are out of the endogenous growth literature in
economics. They are also learning-by-doing rather than diffusion models,
but there are models in the endogenous growth literature that are closer to
the diffusion paradigm. A citation search might be helpful. Theres also a
good book by Sala i Martin on growth theory, but I cant find my copy at
the moment.
The Sterman and Wittenberg articles might be more relevant - they concern
the diffusion of scientific ideas, with representation of problem-solving
activity and stocks of adherents to various theories. I consider this a
must-read for SD practitioners.
The Mahajan and Bass articles are good examples of diffusion models in the
marketing domain.
Jack Homers dissertation is a good SD example of diffusion coupled to
other important dynamics. Pal Davidsens masters thesis at MIT is an SD
model of oil markets with a lot of endogenous technology.
You might also have a look at the System Dynamics group website (John
Sterman, Nelson Repenning, et al.) for recent work on the diffusion of TQM
initiatives.
Regards,
Tom
Argote, L. and D. Epple (1990). "Learning Curves in Manufacturing." Science
247(23 February): 920-924.
Arrow, K. (1962). "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing." Review
of Economic Studies 29(June): 155-173.
Arthur, B. (1989). "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in
by Historical Events." The Economic Journal 99(March): 116-131.
Bass, F. M. (1969). "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables."
Management Science 15: 215-227.
Berndt, E., C. Kolstad, et al. (1993). "Measuring the Energy Efficiency and
Productivity Impacts of Embodied Technical Change." Energy Journal 14(1):
33-56.
Boyd, G., S. H. Karlson, et al. (1993). "Energy Efficiency Improvements in
Steel Minimills." Contemporary Policy Issues 11(3): 88-100.
Brezis, E. S., P. R. Krugman, et al. (1993). "Leapfrogging in International
Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership."
American Economic Review 83(5): 1211-1219.
Cantor, R. and J. Hewlett (1988). "The Economics of Nuclear Power: Further
Evidence on Learning, Economies of Scale, and Regulatory Effects."
Resources and Energy 10: 315-335.
Christiansson, L. (1995). Diffusion and Learning Curves of Renewable Energy
Technologies, IIASA.
Davidson, P. MIT Masters Thesis.
Homer, J. B. (1987). "A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving
Medical Technologies." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 31(3):
197-218.
Karshenas, M. and P. L. Stoneman (1993). "Rank, Stock, Order, and Epidemic
Effects in the Diffusion of New Process Technologies: an Empirical Model."
RAND Journal of Economics 24(4, Winter): 503-528.
Kolstad, C. D. (1996). "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental
Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions." Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management 31: 1-18.
Kremer, M. (1993). "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million
B.C. to 1990." Quarterly Journal of Economics(August).
Mahajan, V., E. Muller and F.M. Bass (1990). "New Product Diffusion Models
in Marketing: A Review and Research Directions." Journal of Marketing 54(Jan).
Messner, S. (1996). Endogenized Technological Learning in an Energy Systems
Model, IIASA.
Moxnes, E. (1992). "Positive Feedback Economics and the Competition Between
Hard and Soft Energy Supplies." Journal of Scientific and Industrial
Research 51(March): 257-265.
Sharp, J. A. and D. H. R. Price (1990). "Experience Curves in the
Electricity Supply Industry." International Journal of Forecasting 6: 531-540.
Sterman, J. D. (1992). "Response to "On the Very Idea of A System Dynamics
Model of Kuhnian Science"." System Dynamics Review 8(1): 35-42.
Teplitz, C. J. (1991). The Learning Curve Deskbook. New York, Quorum Books.
Wittenburg, J. (1992). "On the Very Idea of A System Dynamics Model of
Kuhnian Science." System Dynamics Review 8(1): 21-34.
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Thomas Fiddaman, Ph.D.
Ventana Systems
http://www.vensim.com
8105 SE Nelson Road Tel (253) 851-0124
Olalla, WA 98359 Fax (253) 851-0125
Tom@Vensim.com http://home.earthlink.net/~tomfid
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