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Natalie,

Your sense that system dynamics has a great deal to contribute to the sad state
of our urban environments is on the mark. There has been system dynamics work
in this area, beginning with Jay Forresters Urban Dyanamics (1969) and the two
volumes of Readings in Urban Dynamics (edited by Mass, Graham, Alfeld and
others; 1974 and 1975). Work in this area continues -- Nathan Forrester, has
done work in Europe (can I name the city?); Lou Alfeld remains active; I am
involved in a project that is just beginning; and there is relevant work being
done by George Richardson, David Andersen and their colleagues at the
Rockefeller College of Public Policy at SUNY Albany. I am sure (and hope) that
other solid work is being done; perhaps others on the list can provide a more
comprehensive summary.

Problems faced by urban areas are persistent, have resisted prior "solutions,
and are of the greatest significance. The work to date clearly shows that
system dynamics has a lot to contribute. However, urban problems persist, and
the real contribution of system dynamics is yet to be made.

If you dont already have them, Urban Dynamics and the two volumes of readings
are available from Productivity Press (503-235-0600).

Regards,
Jim Hines
LeapTec and M.I.T.
jimhines@interserv.com

I recently joined this list after being introduced to SD and the "ithink"
software by my husband who was using these materials in his MBA programs. I
write an independent newsletter and do consulting in the field of municipal
finance and it seems to me that the approach I am taking to state and local
government issues would benefit from the SD approach. I have noted some of
the excellent resources that were recently recommended on the list; however
as a small business-person trying to make a go of an independent newsletter
and consulting practice, my time for rigorous study is limited. Therefore,
I propose to swap expertise, where my background in municipal finance and
analysis would be of benefit, in exchange for learning more about SD. (This
is intentionally vague, since this could take the form of collaborating on a
written piece; working on a project collaboratively or simply having the
dialogue.)

My newsletter focuses on trends that have an effect on the fiscal condition
of state and local government and other tax exempt institutions (hospitals,
universities, etc.). My orientation tends to be those economic, political,
demographic and financial factors that contribute to the fiscal viability
(or non-viability) of these governments and institutions. Ive had roughly
17yrs. experience in government, rating agency and bond insurance
underwriting and now my own independent research, writing and consulting.

As an example, I recently wrote an article about Miamis fiscal crisis. In
it, I argued that Miami is a "dysfunctional" city-- that it has failed to
meet its overt mission of providing government services and that its
problems reach throughout most city departments and offices. Entities that
are dysfunctional in this way have greater risk of corruption, fiscal
crisis, scandal, etc. and this risk should be factored into any investment
decision, rating, or credit scoring...

However, I believe theres more to the analysis and heres where I need some
help: that cities like Miami and others are highly successful organizations
for covert but rational (if distorted) missions -- like creating and
retaining wealth in an urban economy where there has been a loss of private
sector resources. The success of such organizations in meeting certain
important community needs makes them that much more resistant to change and
reform. The Newark, New Jersey school system is another sad case in point
-- the district spends $10,000 per pupil yet the schools are physically
crumbling, the bathrooms dont work, the kids cant read and guidance
counselors tell the students to find relatives in other school districts so
they can attend elsewhere. Yet that system is a highly effective
organization for providing money and jobs where there is limited other
economic activity. Meaningful reform of these systems, it seems to me,
requires a top to bottom overhaul, and that effective public policy-making
needs to take this into account. My intuitions are that SD methods would be
useful in both the credit analysis/investment evaluation of such municipal
governments as well as on the public policy side of resolving fiscal crises.

Apologies for rambling; perhaps some of you out there have already tackled
some of these issues or perhaps in my ignorance Im way off the mark on the
applicability of SD modeling.

Your comments are welcome; If anyone is interested in the Miami article I
can e-mail or snail mail; or if interested in copies of the newsletter, let
me know.

Thanks.

Natalie R. Cohen
-------------------------------------------------
Natalie R. Cohen
National Municipal Research
P.O. Box 3437, Church Street Station
New York, N.Y. 10008-3437
212-912-1932 (voice)
212-912-0074 (fax)
ncohen@interport.net