sensitivity analysis
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 1997 5:15 pm
Hello friends:
Mr. Udo wrote:
> i am looking for basis literature to the theme sensitivity analysis
I recommended to read User4s Guide of tools like Vensim, Solver
(Power-Sim) and others, that also propose easy models to initiate about
it.
This methodology answer to question as: What can I do if I do not know
the truth value (the only) for a parameter, and unless I know a path,
a tendency, a fan of possible values, and this parameter explain a few
variables ?
As a result, we get a fan of values with different probabilities for
this variable(-s).
For instance: I try to explain the diffusion model (Bass), with the
innovation and mouth to mouth (imitation) parameters.
Initially i put the values -for instance- of 0.01 & 0.06 . But are
these the only correct ?
And if we -the experience or others markets- think that they can variate
among 0.005 - 0.02 , and 0.04 - 0.07 with a determinate distribution -
random uniform, poison, ...- what ?
We say to model, give this margin of values and simulate 200, 1000 ...
times with different values for these parameters. We get variables like
new customers, customers, profits, cash flow,... (dependents), and that
show margens of values, and not only one value.
Best regards
Antonio Barron
Telefonica de Espaqa
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepage ... s/sd96.htm
antonio.barron@telefonica.es
Mr. Udo wrote:
> i am looking for basis literature to the theme sensitivity analysis
I recommended to read User4s Guide of tools like Vensim, Solver
(Power-Sim) and others, that also propose easy models to initiate about
it.
This methodology answer to question as: What can I do if I do not know
the truth value (the only) for a parameter, and unless I know a path,
a tendency, a fan of possible values, and this parameter explain a few
variables ?
As a result, we get a fan of values with different probabilities for
this variable(-s).
For instance: I try to explain the diffusion model (Bass), with the
innovation and mouth to mouth (imitation) parameters.
Initially i put the values -for instance- of 0.01 & 0.06 . But are
these the only correct ?
And if we -the experience or others markets- think that they can variate
among 0.005 - 0.02 , and 0.04 - 0.07 with a determinate distribution -
random uniform, poison, ...- what ?
We say to model, give this margin of values and simulate 200, 1000 ...
times with different values for these parameters. We get variables like
new customers, customers, profits, cash flow,... (dependents), and that
show margens of values, and not only one value.
Best regards
Antonio Barron
Telefonica de Espaqa
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepage ... s/sd96.htm
antonio.barron@telefonica.es