Ventana software support forum

WARNING: THIS IS ONLY FOR FOLKS INTERESTED IN APPLYING SYSTEMS
THINKING/MODELLING TO GLOBAL RELIEF AND DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS...

Dear System Dynamicists:

We are employed by CARE, the international relief and development
organization. We are in the process of initiating the building of a
hopefully very practical "tool-kit" to facilitate the design, monitoring
and evaluation of development projects in Guatemala and Honduras on a pilot
basis. If it works, the tool-kit could be utilized in the fifty-plus
countries around the world where CARE has a presence. One of the tools is
expected to be "systems thinking," including the use of HPS STELLA/iThink
manuals (particularly their "An Introduction to Systems Thinking") and
software, but with emphasis on generic systems concepts such as stocks,
flows, feedback, etc., that can be understood and applied by illiterate
(and always extremely savvy) campesinos and literate city planners alike.

CAREs sustainable development paradigm is "Household Livelihood Security"
(HLS). HLS consists of the following securities at household, community,
national, and global levels:

-food security
-economic security
-environmental security
-health security
-education security
-housing security
-participation in civil society security
-physical security

(Picture each of the above as an aggregate stock or the heading for a
sub-model of a comprehensive HLS community model...)

Ideally all families, communities, nations--would have all of these
securities on a "adequate/equitable and sustainable basis." The quick
response of many readers of this request for suggestions is likely to be
that "the physics" just aint there. And thats exactly what we want to
explore: the physics of household livelihood security in the context of the
social-economic-ecological trends, whether in community X, or city Y, or
country z (with priority for now being the community level). The modelling
questions and the answers will likely focus largely on environmental limits
and the effects of good and bad policies and how well/badly these are
coordinated to reach common objectives (the UN Conference on Sustainable
Development--Rio 1992--the Agenda 21 Action Plan, is a good example of the
latter).

There are currently approximately one billion very poor people in the
world, and it is estimated this number will double in roughly 20 to 30
years. Although advances in technology, efficiencies, etc., will
undoubtedly continue to take place, thereby mitigating some negative
effects, the great momentum behind social-economic-ecological trends
(population growth, people in poverty, air, water and soil degradation,
global warming, etc.) requires extraordinary analysis and problem solving.
The responsible use of systems thinking in the development field is thus,
in our opinion, urgently needed.

Critical Criteria for the Project Design, Monitoring and Evaluation Toolbox:

1. Facilitate the participatory design and interpretation of household
livelihood security rapid appraisals/needs assessments, i.e., (a)
identifying the key problems and their causes and effects and (b)
suggesting priority leverage points to "optimize" lasting solutions to the
problems

2. User-friendly and applicable at a community (village) level, where there
often is no electricity, no computers, etc.

3. User-friendly and applicable at strategic planning, policy-making levels
(e.g.,. local and national governments)

4. Able to be institutionalized at community and other levels (i.e., not
requiring continuous "expertise" from outside)

Note that we do not seek to use systems thinking as a form of crystal ball
to predict the future, but as a mechanism to facilitate understanding of
how the different livelihood securities interact under different/variable
circumstances and to make explicit how discrete strategies and policy
choices can POSSIBLY influence livelihood security for good or bad (or,
more likely, good AND bad--the optimization issue).

If there is experience, opinions, precautions, or suggestions out there
with respect to the best way for us to proceed with this endeavor, we would
greatly appreciate hearing from you! In addition, if there is a desire for
more information (perhaps required before an idea or suggestion is
offered)--please let us know.

Thank you and best regards.

Peter Heffron
CARE-Honduras
<heffron@gbm.hn>




Peter Heffron
CARE-Honduras
151 Ellis Street
Atlanta, GA 30303

heffron@gbm.hn

Peter,

have you looked at Gerald Barneys and the Millenium Institutes
"Threshold 21" model. It isnt a completely perfect match (and they use
Vensim, not iThink), but its darn close in intent.

You can see it at:
http://www.igc.apc.org/millennium/t21/index.html

You can even download a run-time version for free.

Regards,

RJ Glitz
From: Robert Glitz <rglitz@erols.com>