Colleagues,
Im grateful to Lazaros, Bob, and others who have written to me privately,
for understanding the point I made about discretion. I had intended to reply
to Raymond Joseph but have only just found time to do so. A few points:
1 A good SD model analyses policies and, were an analyst to find and publish
policies that might inhibit further attacks (I assume that no-one would want
to foster them), then the bad guys might be able to circumvent those
policies/change their tactics, or whatever.
2 In the democracies we elect people to whom we give the awesome
responsibility of watching over our lives and liberties and we should not do
anything to make that task more difficult. If the SD community can provide
helpful insights to those people, we should do so.
3 I am sure that an SD model ought not to focus too heavily on recruitment
rates; anti-terrorism is not just a manpower planning problem. In fact, I am
sure that entirely different variables are involved, with some subtle causal
mechanisms and some interesting policy options. Im not going to say what
they are, though.
4 Thanks again to those who took the trouble to understand.
Geoff Coyle
From: "geoff coyle" <geoff.coyle@btinternet.com>
Why should model results not be made public
-
- Senior Member
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am