QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies
Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2007 12:39 pm
Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net>
The idea that the field has been growing at a rate of 10-20% per year sounded like an old estimate to me, so I decided to look at some actual data. Thanks to Roberta Spencer for the raw data; any errors in calculation of average growth rates (AGR) below are mine alone.
SD Society Membership:
Global: 1985-167, 1996-572, 2000-946, 2005-1052; AGR 85-05: 9.6%, AGR 85-96: 11.8%, AGR 96-05: 7.0%, AGR 00-05: 2.1%
North America: 1996-315, 2000-422, 2005-485; AGR 96-05: 4.9%, AGR 00-05: 2.8%
Europe: 1996-160, 2000-358, 2005-373; AGR 96-05: 9.9%, AGR 00-05: 0.8%
Rest of World: 1996-97, 2000-166, 2005-194; AGR 96-05: 8.0%, AGR 00-05: 3.2%
ISDC Attendance (selecting only North America East Coast conferences for
consistency):
1990 Boston-191, 1996 Boston-275, 1998 Quebec-331, 2001 Atlanta-352,
2003 NYC-460, 2005 Boston-521. AGR 90-05: 6.9%, AGR 98-05: 6.4%.
Conclusion: Although we may have grown at that 10-20% rate in the more distant past, we have grown at only single-digit rates, and in decelerating fashion, since the 1990s. (Society membership and conference attendance seem like reasonably good gauges for size of the field. If anyone has other relevant and available time series, those would be interesting to see.)
In SD, we pride ourselves at looking squarely at the facts and not trying to gloss them over with wishful thinking. Can't we just get over the notion that we're going to have big numbers someday? Let's buckle down to do what a small field must do if it is to succeed: Stop tilting at windmills on our own, and work and publish collaboratively with people from other fields, esp. experts in application areas.
Jack Homer
Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net> posting date Tue, 9 Jan 2007 13:25:33 -0500 _______________________________________________
The idea that the field has been growing at a rate of 10-20% per year sounded like an old estimate to me, so I decided to look at some actual data. Thanks to Roberta Spencer for the raw data; any errors in calculation of average growth rates (AGR) below are mine alone.
SD Society Membership:
Global: 1985-167, 1996-572, 2000-946, 2005-1052; AGR 85-05: 9.6%, AGR 85-96: 11.8%, AGR 96-05: 7.0%, AGR 00-05: 2.1%
North America: 1996-315, 2000-422, 2005-485; AGR 96-05: 4.9%, AGR 00-05: 2.8%
Europe: 1996-160, 2000-358, 2005-373; AGR 96-05: 9.9%, AGR 00-05: 0.8%
Rest of World: 1996-97, 2000-166, 2005-194; AGR 96-05: 8.0%, AGR 00-05: 3.2%
ISDC Attendance (selecting only North America East Coast conferences for
consistency):
1990 Boston-191, 1996 Boston-275, 1998 Quebec-331, 2001 Atlanta-352,
2003 NYC-460, 2005 Boston-521. AGR 90-05: 6.9%, AGR 98-05: 6.4%.
Conclusion: Although we may have grown at that 10-20% rate in the more distant past, we have grown at only single-digit rates, and in decelerating fashion, since the 1990s. (Society membership and conference attendance seem like reasonably good gauges for size of the field. If anyone has other relevant and available time series, those would be interesting to see.)
In SD, we pride ourselves at looking squarely at the facts and not trying to gloss them over with wishful thinking. Can't we just get over the notion that we're going to have big numbers someday? Let's buckle down to do what a small field must do if it is to succeed: Stop tilting at windmills on our own, and work and publish collaboratively with people from other fields, esp. experts in application areas.
Jack Homer
Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net> posting date Tue, 9 Jan 2007 13:25:33 -0500 _______________________________________________