Climate Change and SD
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 1998 4:35 pm
I think the climate change discussions have a deeper relevance to the SD
practitioners. While I agree with Tom Fiddamans concerns (and greatly
respect his work on the subject), it misses the point that no one can cla=
im
he/she has THE unique understanding of the CO2 cycle. We do not really
understand the ocean chemistry relative to CO2. We understand an idealize=
d
theory about it. When we attempt a real CO2 balance simulation, I believ=
e
the best simulation still contains a 40% error bar. We do not understand
all the negative (or positive) feedback loops in the system and dont eve=
n
know if the problem is terrestrial or solar or inter-galactic --- I once
heard a non-laughable story based on historical gamma-ray atmospheric
interaction cycles. Therefore, as honest SD practitioners, I think we
would need to make multiple models with multiple viable assumptions and
(hopefully) show that even under these uncertainties, a story, consistent
across all structure assumptions, could be made for (or against) anthropi=
c
CO2 mitigation policies. To simply make "a" model with one view and the=
n
test its uncertainty under policy may still not be "ethical" enough.
G
From: "George Backus" <gbackus@boulder.earthnet.net>
George Backus, President
Policy Assessment Corporation
14604 West 62nd Place
Arvada, Colorado, USA 80004-3621
Bus: +1-303-467-3566
Fax: +1-303-467-3576
practitioners. While I agree with Tom Fiddamans concerns (and greatly
respect his work on the subject), it misses the point that no one can cla=
im
he/she has THE unique understanding of the CO2 cycle. We do not really
understand the ocean chemistry relative to CO2. We understand an idealize=
d
theory about it. When we attempt a real CO2 balance simulation, I believ=
e
the best simulation still contains a 40% error bar. We do not understand
all the negative (or positive) feedback loops in the system and dont eve=
n
know if the problem is terrestrial or solar or inter-galactic --- I once
heard a non-laughable story based on historical gamma-ray atmospheric
interaction cycles. Therefore, as honest SD practitioners, I think we
would need to make multiple models with multiple viable assumptions and
(hopefully) show that even under these uncertainties, a story, consistent
across all structure assumptions, could be made for (or against) anthropi=
c
CO2 mitigation policies. To simply make "a" model with one view and the=
n
test its uncertainty under policy may still not be "ethical" enough.
G
From: "George Backus" <gbackus@boulder.earthnet.net>
George Backus, President
Policy Assessment Corporation
14604 West 62nd Place
Arvada, Colorado, USA 80004-3621
Bus: +1-303-467-3566
Fax: +1-303-467-3576