Elvis Dynamics
Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2001 8:36 am
One of the great things about studying system dynamics is that, after a
while, you can recognize feedback-based dynamics in the most unexpected
places. I was on an plane recently, reading some well written and
entertaining though undeniable dreck about Elvis ("King of Kings," by
James Wolcott, Vanity Fair, November 2001, 162--174), when from out of
nowhere appeared the following dynamic hypothesis:
Elviss drug intake and [his manager] Colonel [Tom] Parkers gambling
debts begin to skyrocket in unison, as if the two of them were in
unconscious competition to see who can flame out first. Elvis wins
and, by winning, loses. (p. 170)
The hypothesis rests on a basic overshoot and collapse scenario. Both
Elvis and Parker are engaged in addictive behaviors, Elvis with drugs and
Parker gambling. Both *spiral* out of control -- the use of the term
spiral is itself indicative of the feedbacks underlying their behavior.
Both Elvis and Parker feel pleasure, albeit momentarily, when they take
drugs or gamble. The pleasure however is fleeting, and more drugs and
larger wagers are subsequently necessary to achieve the same pleasure
levels. This results in two positive feedbacks: 1) the more drugs Elvis
takes, the more drugs Elvis needs to take, and 2) the more Parker bets,
the more Parker needs to bet. Left unstated are systemic factors that
threaten to limit each activity. For Elvis, there is the physiological
task of metabolizing ever larger amounts of drugs; for Parker, gambling
can continue only as long as there is money to cover the wagers, or as
long as others are willing to lend money when debts are incurred, which
only postpones the inevitable.
As if this werent enough system dynamics, there is also the matter of
relative timing. The simultaneousness of their behaviors denotes some
level of synchronization, unconscious though it may be. The relative
dynamics take on the character of an arms race in which each tries to
outdo the other until one is unable to compete further. Two good examples
of arms races are battleships in World War I (Great Britain & Germany),
and nuclear weapons in the Cold War (United States & Soviet Union). The
limiting factors differ in each case, open warfare for the former and
economic collapse for the latter, but they are each limiting factors
nonetheless. It should be noted that there is something methodologically
wonderful about comparing Elvis to the Cold War in a system dynamics
context because, were one asked to defend the analogy, it would be quite
simple to do so (although leaving such a study uncompleted might be in the
best interests of the scholar specifically and the discipline generally).
The final line, "Elvis wins and, by winning, loses," indicates that
Elviss system was limited first as his body gave out before Parkers
bankroll did. Elvis finally overshot up and collapsed in a big way on
August 16, 1977.
corey lofdahl
From: Corey Lofdahl <lofdahl@alum.mit.edu>
SAIC
burlington, mass.
while, you can recognize feedback-based dynamics in the most unexpected
places. I was on an plane recently, reading some well written and
entertaining though undeniable dreck about Elvis ("King of Kings," by
James Wolcott, Vanity Fair, November 2001, 162--174), when from out of
nowhere appeared the following dynamic hypothesis:
Elviss drug intake and [his manager] Colonel [Tom] Parkers gambling
debts begin to skyrocket in unison, as if the two of them were in
unconscious competition to see who can flame out first. Elvis wins
and, by winning, loses. (p. 170)
The hypothesis rests on a basic overshoot and collapse scenario. Both
Elvis and Parker are engaged in addictive behaviors, Elvis with drugs and
Parker gambling. Both *spiral* out of control -- the use of the term
spiral is itself indicative of the feedbacks underlying their behavior.
Both Elvis and Parker feel pleasure, albeit momentarily, when they take
drugs or gamble. The pleasure however is fleeting, and more drugs and
larger wagers are subsequently necessary to achieve the same pleasure
levels. This results in two positive feedbacks: 1) the more drugs Elvis
takes, the more drugs Elvis needs to take, and 2) the more Parker bets,
the more Parker needs to bet. Left unstated are systemic factors that
threaten to limit each activity. For Elvis, there is the physiological
task of metabolizing ever larger amounts of drugs; for Parker, gambling
can continue only as long as there is money to cover the wagers, or as
long as others are willing to lend money when debts are incurred, which
only postpones the inevitable.
As if this werent enough system dynamics, there is also the matter of
relative timing. The simultaneousness of their behaviors denotes some
level of synchronization, unconscious though it may be. The relative
dynamics take on the character of an arms race in which each tries to
outdo the other until one is unable to compete further. Two good examples
of arms races are battleships in World War I (Great Britain & Germany),
and nuclear weapons in the Cold War (United States & Soviet Union). The
limiting factors differ in each case, open warfare for the former and
economic collapse for the latter, but they are each limiting factors
nonetheless. It should be noted that there is something methodologically
wonderful about comparing Elvis to the Cold War in a system dynamics
context because, were one asked to defend the analogy, it would be quite
simple to do so (although leaving such a study uncompleted might be in the
best interests of the scholar specifically and the discipline generally).
The final line, "Elvis wins and, by winning, loses," indicates that
Elviss system was limited first as his body gave out before Parkers
bankroll did. Elvis finally overshot up and collapsed in a big way on
August 16, 1977.
corey lofdahl
From: Corey Lofdahl <lofdahl@alum.mit.edu>
SAIC
burlington, mass.