Natural Gas Simulations and MicroWorlds

[DavidPKreutzer@aol.com]

Would you know how I might get in contact with John Morecroft or anyone using
the OPEC dynamics MicroWorld he created a few decades back? We used it in
some internal Shell senior executive strategic seminars, but I have the
impression that I remember at least some modified version was made public.

Also, I am starting an ambitious project of modeling the dynamics of the
natural gas supply and demand systems with particular interest in evolving
technology for monetizing stranded gas reserves, such as LNG, CNG, recycling (liquids
extractions), and alternative conversion through fertilizer, chemicals, or
electricity production. If anyone know of work in these areas I would be
appreciative to know about it..

Thanks
David Kreutzer
From: DavidPKreutzer@aol.com
President
Successful Systems Inc.

["Will Glass-Husain"]

Hi David,

Nice to hear from you. Ive done some work in this area, and presented a
paper on this topic at the 1999 SD conference co-written with Mani Vannan of
Chevron.

"Managing Gas Assets through Simulation and Scenario Planning"
http://www.forio.com/chevron.pdf

This effort used a mix of analysis methods (specifically simulation,
scenario planning, and decision analysis) to determine the financial and
environment consequences of different production and marketing scenarios for
natural gas in Nigeria. Options considered included LNG, Gas-to-Liquids,
Electrical production, Methanol, etc.

Best regards, WILL

_______________________________________
Forio Business Simulations
Will Glass-Husain
wglass@forio.com
www.forio.com

["Christina Spencer"]

David,

In respect of your enquiry regarding the OPEC dynamics Microworld,
John and his co-authors published The "Oil Producers Microworld"
through Global Strategy Dynamics - information and a demo can be
accessed from http://www.strategydynamics.com/products/OilProd.htm
in the first instance. Please write to me direct if you would like
further information.


Christina Spencer
From: "Christina Spencer" <Christina@strategydynamics.com>
Global Strategy Dynamics, UK
www.strategydynamics.com

[John Morecroft]

David,
The Oil Producers Microworld is available from Kim Warrens company Global Strategy
Dynamics, www.strategydynamics.com

Youll probably recognise the core structure of the underlying model from Shell days.
The model was subsequently used as the basis for Paul Langleys doctoral dissertation at
London Business School in the period 1993 to 1995. Paul devised a completely new
graphical interface suitable for controlled experiments on user learning. This modified
simulator subsequently became the basis for the commercially available microworld and
accompanying documentation. Also theres an article reporting Pauls work forthcoming in
the European Journal of Operational Research:
"Performance and learning in a simulation of oil industry dynamics".

Good luck with your gas market modelling.

Regards, John

--
John Morecroft
Adjunct Associate Professor of Decision Science
London Business School

Tel +44 (0)20 7262 5050 x3252 Fax +44 (0)20 7724 7875
jmorecroft@london.edu