Sustainable Development Modelling Suggestions

["Gerald O. Barney"]

We (Millennium Institute) have a library of
well over 300 models that can be used in
various aspects of running a country. Some
to the best were reviewed in "Managing a
Nation: The Microcomputer Software Catalog"
(Boulder: Westview Press, 1991), which is
now out of print, but available in many
libraries. It could be useful to you.

We and John Gordon (Grand River Informatics,
<gordon.gri@sympatico.ca>) are beginning
an update of the book on the web in French
and English. He is traveling just now, but
send him an email for his suggestions. Also,
please refer people with models you like to
John who will give them some publicity.

Millennium Institute has also developed some models
of potential use in your tool kit:

* RMSM QUICK is a user friendly version of the worlds
most influential development model, namely the World
Banks RMSM-X. We translated the Banks poorly
documented 50,000 cell spreadsheet into Vensim and
wrote a whole new set of documentation.

*THRESHOLD 21 is a full national sustainable development
model. To create it, we removed from
the Banks RMSM-X the most limiting assumption (that
GDP growth in year i is proportional to investment
in year i-1, and nothing else) and replaced it with
production functions for agriculture, industry, and
services. The production functions, in turn, are linked
to population, resources (energy, water, land, etc.)
environment (forrest losses, greenhouse gas emissions),
and social variables (health, education, nutrition,
family planning) none of which are in the Banks model.
Versions are now available or in use for China
(in Chinese), Bangladesh, Tunisia, USA, and Malawi,
and a version is in progress for Italy.

*The "Lester Brown" food model. We teased out of "Who Will
Feed China?" (New York: Norton) by WorldWatch Institute
the underlying mental model used by Les Brown and
converted it to a Vensim model. While it does not
include prices, it can serve as a "base
model" which could easily be applied in any countrys
food security assessment work.

For more details, see our web page:
http://www.igc.apc.org/millennium


Gerald O. Barney
From: "Gerald O. Barney" <gbarney@igc.org>

[Peter Heffron]

WARNING: THIS IS ONLY FOR FOLKS INTERESTED IN APPLYING SYSTEMS
THINKING/MODELLING TO GLOBAL RELIEF AND DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS...

Dear System Dynamicists:

We are employed by CARE, the international relief and development
organization. We are in the process of initiating the building of a
hopefully very practical "tool-kit" to facilitate the design, monitoring
and evaluation of development projects in Guatemala and Honduras on a pilot
basis. If it works, the tool-kit could be utilized in the fifty-plus
countries around the world where CARE has a presence. One of the tools is
expected to be "systems thinking," including the use of HPS STELLA/iThink
manuals (particularly their "An Introduction to Systems Thinking") and
software, but with emphasis on generic systems concepts such as stocks,
flows, feedback, etc., that can be understood and applied by illiterate
(and always extremely savvy) campesinos and literate city planners alike.

CAREs sustainable development paradigm is "Household Livelihood Security"
(HLS). HLS consists of the following securities at household, community,
national, and global levels:

-food security
-economic security
-environmental security
-health security
-education security
-housing security
-participation in civil society security
-physical security

(Picture each of the above as an aggregate stock or the heading for a
sub-model of a comprehensive HLS community model...)

Ideally all families, communities, nations--would have all of these
securities on a "adequate/equitable and sustainable basis." The quick
response of many readers of this request for suggestions is likely to be
that "the physics" just aint there. And thats exactly what we want to
explore: the physics of household livelihood security in the context of the
social-economic-ecological trends, whether in community X, or city Y, or
country z (with priority for now being the community level). The modelling
questions and the answers will likely focus largely on environmental limits
and the effects of good and bad policies and how well/badly these are
coordinated to reach common objectives (the UN Conference on Sustainable
Development--Rio 1992--the Agenda 21 Action Plan, is a good example of the
latter).

There are currently approximately one billion very poor people in the
world, and it is estimated this number will double in roughly 20 to 30
years. Although advances in technology, efficiencies, etc., will
undoubtedly continue to take place, thereby mitigating some negative
effects, the great momentum behind social-economic-ecological trends
(population growth, people in poverty, air, water and soil degradation,
global warming, etc.) requires extraordinary analysis and problem solving.
The responsible use of systems thinking in the development field is thus,
in our opinion, urgently needed.

Critical Criteria for the Project Design, Monitoring and Evaluation Toolbox:

1. Facilitate the participatory design and interpretation of household
livelihood security rapid appraisals/needs assessments, i.e., (a)
identifying the key problems and their causes and effects and (b)
suggesting priority leverage points to "optimize" lasting solutions to the
problems

2. User-friendly and applicable at a community (village) level, where there
often is no electricity, no computers, etc.

3. User-friendly and applicable at strategic planning, policy-making levels
(e.g.,. local and national governments)

4. Able to be institutionalized at community and other levels (i.e., not
requiring continuous "expertise" from outside)

Note that we do not seek to use systems thinking as a form of crystal ball
to predict the future, but as a mechanism to facilitate understanding of
how the different livelihood securities interact under different/variable
circumstances and to make explicit how discrete strategies and policy
choices can POSSIBLY influence livelihood security for good or bad (or,
more likely, good AND bad--the optimization issue).

If there is experience, opinions, precautions, or suggestions out there
with respect to the best way for us to proceed with this endeavor, we would
greatly appreciate hearing from you! In addition, if there is a desire for
more information (perhaps required before an idea or suggestion is
offered)--please let us know.

Thank you and best regards.

Peter Heffron
CARE-Honduras
<heffron@gbm.hn>




Peter Heffron
CARE-Honduras
151 Ellis Street
Atlanta, GA 30303

heffron@gbm.hn

[Robert Glitz]

Peter,

have you looked at Gerald Barneys and the Millenium Institutes
"Threshold 21" model. It isnt a completely perfect match (and they use
Vensim, not iThink), but its darn close in intent.

You can see it at:
http://www.igc.apc.org/millennium/t21/index.html

You can even download a run-time version for free.

Regards,

RJ Glitz
From: Robert Glitz <rglitz@erols.com>

["Robert M. Kane"]

I just responded privately to Mary Milne in Australia concerning the
application of SD to cocoa crop production before seeing this inquiry.
Clearly, there response might have been better placed in general circulation.

I have been monitoring SD traffic for 2 years watching with minor frustration
that there isnt stronger interest ecological and human welfare issues. I
also know that when the opening occurs hesitation is fatal.

I have represented for 5 years a small farmer program in South America growing
organic coffee for export. Through this time I have become aware that solving
the economic problem is only a very poor beginning. All the other issues
detailed by Peter Heffron immediately become overwhelming. At the same time
solving the econbomic problem is the keystone becasue no other problem can be
addressed until the campesino feels secure in the future.

This critical path in place, the economic model becomes the central model with
connections into the higher level functions of health, ecology and finally a
stable social structure.

I have been working with Dr. Sam Alessi, a soils scientist at USDA, to deploy
a field modeling system to support our project but have found we lack the
resources. When this system is installed and operational, its outputs will
veed directly into the next higher level model addressing higher level farmer
concerns. Such a layered approach is critical. An attempt to solve the whole
problem from the beginning will result in lost effort and false conclusion
that the "physics arent there". The fact is that the physics are complete;
the structure of the approach is lacking.

I have contacts both at USDA and in Peru to install the low level model in
preparation for the higher level integration, and our organization is ready to
work together to solve the problem. While this low level efforts are ongoing,
the higher level modeling can be completed to accept its inputs.

There is a large pent-up demand for practical application of SD to this class
of problem. Unfortunately, there is no paying customer to contract the
service. Possibly CARE can provide the impetus.

One last thought. Among the billion or so poor of the world, I personally
know of about 1000 farmers in Northern Peru that own a significant fraction of
the oxygen producing forests of the Amazon rainforest. Every day they make
decisions about whether to sell to loggers or plant more coffee trees. If we
think we cant afford the time to work with these farmers, we are sadly
mistaken.

Robert M. Kane, Director North America
Institute for Sustainable Agriculture in the Tropics
Jaen, Peru
From: "Robert M. Kane" <robert.kane@Cubic.COM>