Stochastic processes in System Dynamics modeling

[=?iso-8859-1?q?Sharadha=20Ramana]

Hi all,
Id like to know if anyone has intoduced stochastic
processes , Monte Carlo simulation, risk analysis etc.
in System Dynamics modeling to include random varibles
into the model.
I have built a system dynamics model ( using
Vensim software) to study software development
process. I am now including stochastic process/ random
variables into my model. Id like to know if there is
any relevant material available.

thanks and regards
sharadha ramanan
From: =?iso-8859-1?q?Sharadha=20Ramanan?= <sharadha_gvr@yahoo.com>

["geoff coyle"]

Yes, Ive built loads of models using stochastic effects. One is to do with
coal production (Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 36, No.
4, pp 307-318, 1985 and Vol. 42. No. 6, pp 435-462, 1991). See also my book
System Dynamics Modelling CRC Press, 1996 for a full discussion of the
correct use of random distributions in SD models; most people have no idea
at all of how do that properly.

Regards,

Geoff

Professor R G Coyle,
Consultant in System Dynamics and Strategic Modelling,
Telephone +44 (0) 1793 782817, Fax ... 783188
email geoff.coyle@btinternet.com

["Jim Hines"]

Sharada,

Im not sure of your precise interest, but in our organizational evolution
work, we use probability distributions to govern learning between managers.
This is really a combination of SD with agent-based, genetic algorithms.
More info available at http://web.mit.edu/org-ev/www.

Regards,
Jim Hines
jhines@mit.edu