microbiological risk assessment of animal imports

["David Todd"]

Hello

I head a small team responsible for developing risk analysis methodology
and applying it to the risks posed by importation of animals and animal
products.

My first major project is to attempt to model the pathways by which
people are exposed to salmonellae, and then to model the extent to which
the risks would be changed through changes in importation policies. That
is, to what extent would introducing new strains of salmonellae in
commodities not previously imported affect the overall risk faced by the
consumer?

Is anyone aware of any examples where System Dynamics has been used
(models and/or written material) in microbiological risk assessment? Are
there any models, publications or experts you could direct my attention
to?

Regards
David Todd

Synergia Ltd

New Zealand
From: "David Todd" <david.todd@synergia.co.nz>

[Ken Coghill]

Dear David,

There are some sites related to BSE, FMD & Classical Swine Fever outbreaks
that provide information that could be very useful, at least as background
if not directly on what you have asked for.

BSE: <http://www.bseinquiry.gov.uk/index.htm>
FMD:
<http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_ ... ffairs.cfm>;
<http://www.ncl.ac.uk/cre
esearch/>;
<http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... /48702.htm>;
<http://www.europarl.eu.int/committees/fiap_home.htm>;
abigail.woods@man.ac.uk; CampbellID@Cardiff.ac.uk

Also: <http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/impact.htm> (I am unaware of
any report issued arising from this)


My interest is in these disease outbreaks as governance case studies, plus
my background as a veterinarian (BVSc).

Good luck.


Best wishes,

Ken Coghill PhD
From: Ken Coghill <Ken.Coghill@buseco.monash.edu.au>

Homepage: http://www.dragonnet.com.au/kencogl