ANNOUNCE New online climate change simulator

[John Sterman jsterman MIT.EDU]

Posted by John Sterman <jsterman@MIT.EDU> I'm pleased to announce the availability of a new, online interactive simulator on climate change. The simulator, available at http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/GHG.html, is based on the ""bathtub dynamics""
experiments carried out at the MIT System Dynamics Group.

That work shows that even highly educated people with strong backgrounds in mathematics and the sciences have great difficulty relating the flow of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In particular, the large majority of people believe that atmospheric GHG concentrations can be stabilized by stabilizing emissions near current rates, and while emissions continuously exceed the removal of GHGs from the atmosphere. These beliefs are analogous to asserting that a bathtub filled faster than it drains will never overflow, and point to fundamental misunderstanding of basic stock and flow processes as a contributor to poor public appreciation for the dynamics of the climate, particularly the long time delays between changes in emissions and changes in climate. That work, forthcoming as J. Sterman and L. Booth Sweeney, ""Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change: Adults'
mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter"" is forthcoming in Climatic Change, and is available now at

http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/Underst ... ublic.html.

The online simulator provides an interactive environment in which people can learn about stocks and flows and then see how GHG emissions and removal flows accumulate to determine atmospheric GHG concentrations.

You first are introduced to the stock-flow concept through an interactive Java applet. You explore how stocks accumulate the flows into and out of them using a water tank metaphor. You can draw on your screen any pattern you like for the inflow to and outflow from the tank, then immediately see the resulting pattern for the stock, and animate the result. The stock-flow applet should be useful in system dynamics and modeling classes of any type, whether or not the class addresses climate change.

After exploring the relationships between stocks and flows with the water tank, you can see how these concepts apply to the climate. The simulator presents you with a simple scenario for future atmospheric GHG concentrations.
You draw on your screen your estimates of the rate of GHG removal from and emissions into the atmosphere that would achieve the GHG concentration scenario.
The simulator then provides you with context-sensitive feedback on how you did, and you can then cycle back as many times as you like.

Note: you will need the latest version of Java (version 5.0 or greater); many PCs will need updating. The simulator page provides the link to the Java site for download.

Feedback is welcome -- send comments and suggestions to climate-online@mit.edu.

John Sterman

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John Sterman
Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management Director, MIT System Dynamics Group MIT Sloan School of Management
E53-351
30 Wadsworth Street
Cambridge, MA 02142
Posted by John Sterman <jsterman@MIT.EDU> posting date Wed, 16 Aug 2006 09:47:32 -0400