Model to manage forest fire

["Chariya Peterson"]

I have been searchning for forest fires model but found very little.
Natural forest fires are important factor in the eco system. It is a way to
maintain the level of fuels, refresh the land, and some plant seeds requie
forest fire to sprout. Now, with logging, human made fires (in an
uncontrolled, and wrong location), and fires being put out too efficeintly,
fuels are found to be at a very high level.
I am wondering if this is a good topics for building a system dynamics.
There seem to be abundance of data available concerning statistics and eco
system.
Anyone can opoint to me some papers or web site that discuss dynamic models
of forest fire management?

chariya
From: "Chariya Peterson" <Chariya.Peterson@verizon.net>

["Fowler, Nicholas K"]

Here are a couple of sites in case you dont already have them.
http://www.prescribed-fire.org/federal.html

Several years ago Tall Timbers was doing and publishing significant
fire research and I would be surprised if they didnt have models.
See http://www.ttrs.org/

Here is a probability model - based on Yellowstone fire
http:/
esearch.esd.ornl.gov/EMBYR/embyr.html

Here is another paper that might interest you.
http://honeybee.helsinki.fi/users/jkpen ... /gradu.pdf

If you havent already, try using Google to search for Forest fire model.

Good luck,
Nick
From: "Fowler, Nicholas K" <nicholas.k.fowler@boeing.com>

[=?iso-8859-2?Q?Mirjana_Peji=E6_B]

Dear Chariya,

Look at the Web site:

http://sysdyn.mit.edu/gsp98/

Assignement 30.

Good luck.

Mirjana Pejic Bach

Department for Business Computing
Faculty of Economics, University of Zagreb
Trg J.F.Kennedya 6
10000 Zagreb
Croatia

Telephone: +385 (1) 2383-276 (direct)
Fax: +385 (1) 2335-633
Email: mpejic@efzg.hr
Website: http://oliver.efzg.hr/~mpejic/

[James Pass]

Chariya,

Dr. Andrew Ford and I are working on a system dynamics model of fuel
accumulation and forest fire for a Ponderosa Pine stand. Our efforts
have turned up two noteworthy models, both of which are dynamic but
not system dynamics. The models include:
Fire and Fuels Extension to FVS http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/4155/ffe-fvs.html
Models by Carol Miller http://leopold.wilderness.net/staff/miller.htm

A few good papers by Carol Miller to look at include:

Miller, C. and D. L. Urban. 2000. Modeling the effects of fire management
alternatives on mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Ecological
Applications 10:85-94.

Miller, C. and D. L. Urban. 2000. Connectivity of forest fuels and surface
fire regimes. Landscape Ecology 15:145-154.

Miller, C. and D. L. Urban. 1999. A model of surface fire, climate and forest
pattern in the Sierra Nevada, California. Ecological Modelling 114:113-135.

The following web-site has brief descriptions of other models that might be
of interest to you: http://www.frames.gov/tools

If your search has turned up anything you feel would be of interest to me,
please pass it along.

James Pass
From: James Pass <mountainpass_2001@yahoo.com>
Environmental Science & Regional Planning
Washington State University